Uncomfortable Or Unfortunate Situations I Have Been In Today

1. I have to get up at 4:30AM to catch a flight. I put on a shirt that is about half-a-size too small. A big man knows that this is one of the worst things one can do. It makes you self-conscious all day. It also makes you look like a fat idiot as you are walking through airports, hence, the self-consciousness.

2. I go into a bathroom at a fairly large airport. There is a man, an attendant, sitting there. I have to drop a sizable load. He sees me go in. Ten minutes later, he sees me go out. I know he understands, but like the shirt, it is just an uncomfortable situation.

3. I also don't know what to do with the attendant. He doesn't have an official tip jar. There are some mints and Listerine with a money jar, but that looks like it goes to a charity. Again, I don't know what to do.

4. I shotgun 40 ounces of Diet Coke. The caffeine and and liquid causes bladder spasms. I have to piss 4 times in the next two hours. This situation amplifies the uncomfortableness of 2 and 3.

5. Since I left this morning, I missed the opportunity to see Kevin Durant, the emerging Thunder, and maybe this year's champs, Spurs.

Just an unfortunate day.

Some Things On My Mind

1. The idea that "funny" is an objective term. Adam Carolla and his guests have talked about this some. I certainly think that Norm MacDonald is funnier than Larry the Cable Guy. But I have always thought that "funny" was what made me laugh. I guess what I am saying is the economist in me says funny is what puts people in seats and money into comedians' pockets.

2. I really think that in five years 50-60% of my income will go to taxes. I am not saying this to be pessimistic. And I am not overly concerned about my or "this country's" future. It is just what I think.

3. Health insurance doesn't equal health care. Health insurance doesn't equal health care. Just like life insurance doesn't equal life.

4. I am reading Bill Kirchner's A Miles Davis Reader. I am not that far into it, but Miles is the man.

NASCAR Is Still A Good Sport To Write About

Joe Posnanski sheds some light by not shedding light on Jimmie Johnson.

NASCAR is and has always been about crazy men. Men who can drive 200mph. Men who can quell their fear of death like very few other men can. The Car of Tomorrow and Corporate NASCAR doesn't allow these stories to come through. They don't allow fans to appreciate how absolutely crazy these men are.

Too Many Movies, Not Enough Work

I enjoyed Whatever Works. Watching a Woody Allen film isn't like Forrest Gump's "a box of chocolates." You know what you're going to get. It isn't going to be sweet. It isn't going to be dark. It is going to have a few nuts in it. But when you're finished, you're going to say "that wasn't too bad." You are also going to laugh.

I also enjoyed The Assassination of a High School President. Both it and State of Play openly plagiarized All The President's Men. But at least Assassination and Bruce Willis had a sense of humor. State of Play had better actors, but no matter how hard they tried, they couldn't make it a fictional All The President's Men. I have never liked when a fictional movie tried too hard. All The President's Men was true, and that is what it made it so good. State of Play wasn't true, and that is why the twists and turns kept me watching but didn't impress me in the end.

I really liked Management. I thought it was funny and also spoke to the struggle of "home" versus "the world" and "ramblin'." Life, love, charity, and moving forward isn't simple. And neither is being part of a family business.

Like Assassination, Adventureland impressed me. A "coming of age" story that uses Lou Reed's "Satellite of Love" reminded me of listening to U2's cover version on their "One" single and marveling over "I love to watch things on TV." Like the characters in Adventureland, I soon realized that watching things on TV and dreaming about things on TV and looking up to guys like Ryan Reynolds' character did not get you closer to "being on TV." In fact, all it did was keep you stuck.

I did not like Transformers 2. I slept through a 1/4th of it. I liked Transformers as a kid. I usually like cartoon super-hero movies, but no matter how much action and noise Transformers 2 had, I didn't care about what happened to any of the characters including my friend Optimus Prime. It was disappointing.

My wife made me watch Confessions of a Shopaholic. I will never get that hour and forty minutes back.

Observe and Report was absolutely crazy, a manic movie about a bi-polar person. It was funny and deeply sad at the same time similar to Swimming With Sharks. A demented world can be entertaining to watch, and I couldn't wait to see what happened at the end of Observe and Report or Swimming With Sharks.

Some Things

1. I have never been addicted to drugs. I have heard that crack-heads spend the rest of their life searching for the high of that first hit. Warm, fresh, right-off-the-assembly-line Krispy Kreme donuts is all I am going to say.

2. Vista sucks. The Mac commercial makes sense. Microsoft has been selling empty promises since I have started using computers. Windows will work most of the time, but when it doesn't, it will make your life miserable.

3. Wireless mouses were a great invention.

4. I bought a cord to hook up my laptops to my TV. I have no idea what I am going to do with it, but I am really glad I have it.

"Truck His Ass" Or The Pursuit

"Truck his ass" is what I said when I saw Howard coming home on Damon's throw.
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My wife and I watched the first game of the World Series. She has no idea about baseball. No idea whatsoever. But she and I enjoyed the game. The Phillies won.

I hate the Yankees. I have never liked them. It really started when they came back against the Braves in '96. I never thought they could get four wins in six games against the Braves' starters. But even before then, my grandfather told me to not like teams from New York, especially one named the Yankees.

I am not a big fan of the Phillies or Philadelphia either. I grew up watching the Redskins. Washington fans have very little respect for the other NFC east cities. Philadelphia, New York, and Dallas don't get "my team isn't playing" fandom.

But I enjoyed game one, prefer the National League to the American League, Charlie Manuel is from Virginia, and I started rooting for the Phillies. I couldn't watch Game 2, and they lost. I stopped wanting to watch the games. I couldn't handle it. I couldn't handle watching a baseball game, caring about the outcome, but knowing that my desired outcome probably won't happen kills me.

I don't want to watch anything sports related especially with the Redskins the laughingstock of the NFL and the Hokies choking away another season. And here I was enjoying the beautiful game of baseball in HD, and I don't even hate this Yankees team as much as usual (except Joe Girardi), but once I have a rooting interest, I can't watch the damn game without increases in blood pressure and yelling. I find the whole thing sad.

Then I am watching Mad Men, and President Kennedy gets assassinated. I remember September 11th and April 16th. I remember that baseball and sports and most everything else is a distraction from the only important thing:

Life.

Some Thoughts

1. For some reason, I've been thinking a lot about writing. It is a very vain act. It is also very much subject to Gladwell's 10,000 hour hypothesis. But it and other forms of communication is a key in today's world.

2. I wanted to watch baseball last night. I want to watch baseball tonight. Tomorrow I am not so sure. This series has great potential, but Selig and MLB will screw it up.

3. I don't see why MLB cannot have a flexible playoff schedule. I understand enough business to know that they are probably maximizing revenues, but they are alienating me as a fan. November is too late for baseball in New York and Philadelphia.

4. I have also been thinking a lot about luck lately. Getting a job or getting into a school or getting through a subjective admission process requires an amount of luck. But there are things you can do to increase your chances. Those are the things you have to concentrate on to remain sane.

Guessing

Risk is purely a probablistic concept. Probability requires a significant number of events. Playing poker once or for one night or for your life's saving is not a risky proposition. It is an uncertain event. The probablities associated with the game of poker are not informative if you're playing for your life's saving. The "right" play, the play with the highest expected value, doesn't mean anything if you lose. It doesn't mean anything if you win. All that matters is winning or losing.

My example is not a very good one, and I will work on a better one. But there are two ideas here. First of all, risk has no meaning unless you're dealing with a repeatable and replicated event. I would argue we haven't had enough service economy recessions to understand the risks associated with our economy. I would argue we don't know the risks involved with a public health care system in the U.S. Second, "risky" thinking is dangerous when one explicitly considers uncertainty. People who try and predict recessions will mislead people, because they are thinking about the problem in a fundamentally wrong way. People who discuss a public health care program in terms of outcomes and events will mislead people, because there is a fundamental error in there thinking. We don't know will happen, and we can't argue in probability terms.

I am not saying what I want to say, but my final point is that assuming and proclaiming that you know the distribution of outcomes when you really have no idea is (might be) dangerous and wrongheaded. We (some times) need to admit when we're guessing.

Poker isn't the best Risk, the idea that events can be broken up into chance

The Economy

I wanted to write a post saying the economy has turned around, because my last two flights were relatively full. But the Hayek in me knows this is the same error in scope most people make. "The economy" doesn't exist. It is just Orwellian political language to be used and manipulated by political pundits and pseudo-intellectuals.

My last two flights were full. You decide what that really means.

On a different note, I am sitting in a surgery waiting room. I can assure you the surgery business is brisk also. Thinking of surgery as business is strange, but I think that is the proper way to think about it. There is too much money involved for it to be thought of any other way.

From The Plane Which Is Going Through Choppy Air

1. I still get a thrill out of lifting off the ground. I hope I always do.

2. I also get a thrill out of racing through a major airport to catch a plane. I have a feeling as I get older this thrill will pass.

3. I don't care much for choppy air.

Thoughts While I Was Running

1. I don't drink enough water.

2. I have known that I don't drink enough water for a long time. Once in the 11th grade, my body cramped up so bad because of dehydration that I stayed on my den floor for two hours.

3. There is nothing sadder than continually doing a stupid thing over and over again.

4. I can't watch TV and do work. But I watch TV and act like I am working. Another sad situation.

5. The lesson here is to drink water and turn the TV off when you want to work. It is like my old coach said, "Push away from the table you fat-ass., push away from the table!" "Let your mistakes by your own."

No, Not That Nobel Prize

I have seen three Nobel Prize economists speak.

James Buchanan is still my favorite, but I did enjoy Elinor Ostrom. I would have never thought she would have won a Nobel Prize in economics, but she did. And the profession is better for it.

Things I Would Like To See Tried But Not Necessarily On A Permanent Basis

1. All balls and strikes determined by K-Zone or a similar computer system. If it is in the box, it is a strike. If it isn't, it is a ball. The home plate umpire would only help determine swings and plays at the plate. Notice, I said I would like to see it tried not that I think it should be implemented. I think balls and strikes have always been very arbitrary, and I don't have the counterfactual to know if this is better than the alternative.
   
2. All major sports have a "the umpire or referee completely screwed up and we have to do something about it" replay system. I imagine this looking somewhat like college football's every play Is reviewed system, but I would like for it to include other blatant bad calls like pass interference penalties. This system would have to be somewhat arbitrary. The idea would be that the call was so blatant that it only takes a single review and everyone knows the referee screwed up, then the call would corrected. I am ignoring the counterfactual problem here, but I think it can be overcome. The system would depend on mutual agreeability between teams. Like with Mauer's fair ball the other night, you give him a double and move forward. I don't think that ex ante (right after it happened) the Yankees would have disagreed with that, especially if they knew the same would be done for them. Again, I just want to see this and admit it might not (probably won't) work.
   
3. I would like to see a college football playoff system, but I think it is like the above things. It might work, but I don't think it is guaranteed. (Listen to this possibility, Virginia Tech versus Miami in the BCS championship game. I don't think Florida or Alabama is going to lose twice. Texas didn't impress me last night. I know Virginia Tech will screw up. But imagine the possibilities. This is why I am unsure about the playoff system.)

My Morning Or Whatever

I guess it started last night. My wife and I argued about how much TV we watch. She is happy with her work ethic. She is happy with the amount of time she spends in front of the TV. I am not happy with my work ethic. I think the TV sucks my energy and work ethic out of me. We disagree. We argue which really sucks the energy out of both of us. She says, "Whatever," which I interpret as "This is life."

I wake up late this morning. But this isn't too bad, because I have to pick up something for breakfast and lunch. I also have to pay my HOA dues. I leave the apartment, and I even remember my parking pass and pack a bag with a couple of drinks and granola bars. I don't put the bag in my computer bag.

I pay my HOA dues. I go to the grocery store. I buy one of those microwaveable semi-prepared sandwiches for breakfast. This is of course a mistake. I should know better.

I parked. I am three steps from the office when I realize that I did not put my parking pass on my rear-view mirror. I walk back and put the tag up.

I make breakfast. Semi-prepared food sucks. It always does. It always will. It is passable, but it sucks. And it makes a mess.

I remember that my bag of drinks and granola bars are still in the truck. I go down and buy a drink from the machine.

I am in the office with one other person. She is coughing and sneezing. She seems to be deathly ill to me. She assures a professor that she was sick but is now recovering. This scares the hell out of me.

Two Commentaries

1. From the New York Times.
   
2. From the Denver Post.
   

This is the debate of our times, and I think both columnists reach the correct conclusion. As my political activist colleague says, "Something always beats nothing."

Marx had some valid observations. There will always be classes, but I don't think there is a real class struggle. The "doers, the Jims, the Humes," don't have time to bother with the "non-doers, the Mr. Hoovers, the Benthams."

“I Feel Like Such A Whore; I Can’t Do Anything For Free Anymore” Or Two Monday Afternoon Thoughts

1. I thought about the title quote this afternoon. I've never thought that passion and "being paid" were mutually exclusive. But I have always thought that it was hard to do both at the same time, and only a select number of people get to be passionate about what they get paid for. Part of me thinks my outlook is wrong. I should do everything in my power to make my passion fruitful. Another part of me understands that passion is usually a fleeting thing. What I am passionate about today won't mean a thing to me tomorrow. This is life.
   
2. How in the world is Tech a 12-14 point favorite over Boston College? Has anyone watched the last few seasons in the ACC? Do people from Boston College just not bet? Did anyone watch Tech against Duke, another well-coached disciplined team? I wish I had the courage to gamble.
   

    

Sunday Morning Reflection On The Last Three Days

Thursday night I saw U2. I know opinions on U2 vary. But they absolutely rocked. I saw them (and Chelsea Clinton) in RFK on the PopMart tour. This show was ten times better. They're at a point where they still have the physical skills to put on a show and the experience to know how to put on a show.

Friday night I saw my high school team. They ran the most efficient spread offense I've ever seen in high school. They are 5 and 0 (almost twice as many wins as we had total in my junior and senior years). They need to find a package that will help them run out the clock without exposing their quarterback to injury and infuriating the opposing team. But I was thoroughly impressed.

Saturday, I didn't do much. I did mow my parent's grass in record time. It wasn't perfect, but it is done. Now we have to hope for an early October freeze.

Video Store Ideas Or The Lack Of Video Store Ideas

My family and I know that the video business isn't going to make it in the long or medium term. In the short-run, we have a locational monopoly. Right now, the business is a cash cow. Everything is paid for. The rent is cheap. We don't have to pay a lot in labor. Business is definitely slowing. And we have no delusions about our long-term future. But the question becomes what can we do right now to make a few more dollars?

We're thinking about adding a subscription plan. Obviously, we're late on this one. It would cost us a $1000-$2000 to upgrade our software and computer equipment, but it would require us to get credit card capabilities which should increase our revenues and help us eventually liquidate our inventory.

I've also thought about increasing our internet presence with a Twitter, Facebook, and Blog Accounts. All of these only cost time, but they could definitely help us market the business. (There is part of me who thinks this is part of the future for local business. A local business creates a "following". When people check their Facebook Account, they see what DVDs are being released Tuesday. They can debate other "friends" and customers about what movies are good. The local storefront and the fact that customers see and know other customers add a little humanity that "big" business cannot. I also like the idea of "Twitter Specials" like all followers get a free bag of microwave popcorn. From a marketing perspective, this kind of advertising is so much accountable than advertising in the high school yearbook or local newspaper. I can easily count how many followers took advantage of the Twitter Special.) This internet presence should also help us eventually liquidate our inventory.

With all of this being said, I know it is only a matter of time before the video store goes the way of the record store, but I want to squeeze every last dollar out of it that I can.

 

 

Health, Fitness, Nutrition, And Me Discussing Things That I Don’t Know

As I was jogging yesterday I decided that my definition of a basically healthy person was someone who could safely and efficiently exit a building if there was an emergency. If the person had children, he or she should also be able to help those children to safely and efficiently exit a building during an emergency.

Then my mom was telling me (complaining) about her new aerobics/strength training class. I wasn't listening. She called me on it. And I went into my health manifesto to prove that I was actually kind-of listening:

First, nutrition is the key to being healthy. If you eat crap, you will not be more than basically healthy. Proper nutrition is a constant struggle for the vast majority of Americans. It isn't society's fault. It isn't a cultural problem. Society and culture contributes, but it is about making difficult choices. Food that tastes good is usually not good for you. A person who eats food that tastes good (especially in my family) usually eats too much. One has to make a habit out of eating low calorie-low fat-low sugar food (most of the time). One has to make it a habit to watch his portions (most of the time). But remember my definition of basically healthy, it is better to eat crap and be heavy than be an alcoholic who is too drunk (or not there to) to get his kids out of his burning house.

Second, exercise is about activity habits. My mom can go to aerobics/strength training once a week, but if she wants to progress, especially during the aerobics portion, she has to increase her activity levels throughout the week. A power lifter has to lift heavy weight. A runner has to run. If my mom wants to keep up with her aerobics instructor, she has to do aerobics. You have to establish habits, because the exercise itself doesn't burn that many calories. It is the gradual boost in metabolism that really leads to weight loss. It is that confidence and bad-ass feeling that comes from pushing yourself past your pre-conceived limits that allows one to do more. But again, exercise has very little to do with achieving my definition of healthy. If you're on crutches because of a torn ACL or a knee replacement, you aren't making it out of the building.

The word that keeps being repeated is habits. If you want to move past basic healthiness, you have to develop nutritional and activity habits. But the thing to remember is that all habits generate opportunity costs and tradeoffs. In other words, being healthy isn't simple, and I can understand when people decide that it isn't worth it.

I'm Done

No more Redskins. The just aren't worth it.

Saturday Morning Thoughts

1. I wouldn't be upset if the Redskins traded for Braylon Edwards or Brandon Marshall. The fact that I wouldn't be upset worries me. I think it shows that I am becoming really indifferent to the Redskins' future.
   
2. I could see Virginia Tech playing Alabama again in the BCS National Championship Game. By 6:00PM, I have a feeling this vision will be destroyed.
   
3. I am watching Rachel Ray. I have no idea what this says about me. But I don't think it is good. She is baking bacon. This fascinates me.
   
4. I should do a good amount of cleaning today. This doesn't fit into by badass persona. But I am so badass, I am going to do it anyway.
   
5. It is raining in Blacksburg. This has to play in favor of Virginia Tech, right? Maybe it will be 6:30PM or 7:00PM before my vision in 2 will be crushed.

What Women Don’t Understand Or A Personal Confession

I must think of myself as a badass. I still think I could get in a three point stance and block guys. I still think I can take a few months to get back in shape and be able to play "ball." I think I can do it. But I don't do it, because I don't want to. I am so badass, I do what I want to.

I have to think this way, because when I don't, I am not worth a shit. This proof of this statement is evident (at least in my mind). When I don't have this "lethal ape" feeling, I don't get things done. I am tentative. I am bored. I am not much good. As Ol' Willis Bond used to say, "I ain't worth a shit."

I am not violent. I recognize that it is just a feeling. I know that I couldn't block my sixteen year old 150 pound cousin. I can't even get in three point stance without mildly injuring myself. I recognize that all I really need is confidence in my ability to push through the difficulties that life throws in front of me.

But there is no better way to instill that confidence than to convince yourself that you are a Grade A, Mr. T-like badass.

Keep On Rockin' In The Free World Or Manohla Dargis' Review Of Michael Moore's New "Entertainment"

"In the end, what is to be done? After watching “Capitalism,” it beats me. Mr. Moore doesn’t have any real answers, either, which tends to be true of most socially minded directors in the commercial mainstream and speaks more to the limits of such filmmaking than to anything else. Like most of his movies, “Capitalism” is a tragedy disguised as a comedy; it’s also an entertainment. This isn’t the story of capitalism as conceived by Karl Marx or Naomi Klein, and it certainly isn’t the story of contemporary American capitalism, which extends across the globe and far beyond Mr. Moore’s sightlines."

She reminds me of this review. I have had a long complex intellectual relationship with Michael Moore. Recently, he has just pissed me off. The fact that the "socially minded" will see this movie and come out nodding their head "yes" without being able to answer what they are really affirming really pisses me off. It also scares the hell out of me.

Inconveniences

My office floor had an inch of dust and grime on it. It hadn't been cleaned in eighteen months. There were pistachio and peanut shells under the desk. It was disgusting. For the last six months, I have thought about how I should clean it up.

But I still got a little upset when the custodians made me leave the office for two and a half minutes, so they could clean my office floor.

I Don't Know What To Think About This

He has won a lot of games. But maybe it is time for a change. I guess we will find out after next year.

Energy

I plug my netbook in at airports, coffee shops, in my office, and at home. I pay the electricity bill at home, but I can't discern any marginal increases when I charge my netbook. I have started turning off my desktop when not in use, but I haven't been able to tell much difference in my bill because of that either. I've read where these electric cars (specifically the Chevy Volt) won't be as cheap as people think because of the increases in electric bills due to charging them. I've heard the cost of electricity will increase in the near future. I know that my electricity bill was high in the winter when my heater had to run all day and night.

The point here is that uncertainty about technology, regulations, government, fossil fuel supplies, etc. abounds. No one knows what is going to happen. But the world keeps spinning. And that is the only energy that matters.

 

NFL Predictions

1. There will be a rule where quarterbacks are only live when they're outside the pocket. Referees will have to make the decision whether the quarterback "could have been" sacked or not. I don't think this rule is that far away.
   
2. The League will have its own medical-training staff that evaluates all player injuries. Teams will have very little influence on medical-training decisions. Independent (League-paid) doctors will determine who plays and who doesn't play. This change will be due to finances, retired NFL player complaints and medical problems, gambling, and Bill Belichick and his coaching tree.
   
3. An 8-8 team will eventually win the Super Bowl.
   
4. The Redskins will finish 8-8 this year. They will not win the Super Bowl.

Some Things

1. I don't know what to think about small unprofitable airports. I do prefer them to large airports, but I don't see much (any) public good value in them.
   
2. I did drink most of the coffee from yesterday. It did clean out my system.
   
3. I've never bought a newspaper. I don't think I ever will. I always thought that paper vending machines were an interesting test of honesty, but I've never bought one.
   
4. The ads on the blog are just an experiment. I am not delusional enough to think I will make any money. Personally, I read everything off of Google Reader anyway.

Einstein Quote Of The Day

"Measured objectively, what a man can wrest from Truth by passionate striving is utterly infinitesimal. But the striving frees us from the bonds of the self and makes us comrades of those who are the best and the greatest."

For some reason, this quote gives me comfort.

Bad Coffee

I didn't get my normal eight hours last night. I needed a pick me up. I made some coffee in my office. It isn't very good.

The coffee was old. The coffeemaker needed a good cleaning. The finished product just sucks.

I shouldn't drink it, but I will. At least it will suppress my appetite.

 

What Does It Mean To Be A Professional?

Last week some guy who irritated me and basically questioned my work ethic/manhood asked me what my future goals were. Anyone who has read more than five posts on this blog knows I have no goals. I am a confused guy struggling to find my way in the world. I am confident I will get there, but honestly, I am not the kind of guy who is ever going to verbalize future goals. I am superstitious enough to believe that verbalization will guarantee my failure. I am also realistic enough to think that future goals change daily and are dependent on an amount of luck. My only real goal is to live, and I think that is everyone's real goal.

I gave some quick and unthoughtful answer. But here are some possible professional goals that I might pursue in the future.

1. I want to convince and cajole other similar professionals that every problem is not empirical. I want them to see that many problems cannot be simplified into observable data. I want them realize how foolish some of their answers are.
   
2. I want to be a professional who contributes to solutions. I don't care how small or temporary the problems are, but I want to be part of recognizable and implementable, not optimal, solutions.
   
3. I want to describe problems in the truest light I can. I don't want to ignore attributes without admitting that I am ignoring them. I don't believe in objectivity, but I want really "call things like I see them."
   

    

Another Healthcare Thought

I have been in six different emergency rooms. Three were in predominantly rural areas. Two were in suburban-urban areas. One was in an urban area. One of the hospitals in the suburban area was a private hospital, and one was a public hospital (that I think was just discussed in a USA Today cover story). Of course they were all different experiences. But it made me think about the spatial-transportation-Poisson problems involved in healthcare. The rural hospitals were underutilized in many respects. (I will say that most of my experience with them had to do with broken limbs. The orthopedists took an hour to get there in each case, but I was given a room/tent by myself to wait.) The capacity and service of the suburban hospitals depended on what time of day I was there. The urban hospital was an experience in itself. I also fully admit that I went to the emergency room a few times for non-emergency reasons but Mom reasons. Today I would have sucked it up or have gone to an urgent care facility.

This post really has no point, and I have no answers. But it shows how complicated of a problem healthcare really is and shows how bad of an idea it might be to push something through Congress to create the illusion that you are "doing something."

(This post made me think about some of these issues.)

College Football

1. It is rare that there are two games on a Saturday where I bet most of the nation is wishing that all four teams would lose. Notre Dame versus Michigan, USC versus Ohio State are like that today.

2. My college coach said that Bear Bryant said that "Out-of-conference, you schedule one team you're better than, one team you that is better than you, and one team you're even with." (This was before teams played what seems to be an endless out-of-conference schedule.) I think Tech has scheduled that way this year. So next week, the team that they are even with, is the real test.

3. I still say that the problem with Division I football is there are too many fringe teams. Marshall and Tech should never play one another. Texas should never play Wyoming. TCU should never play Virginia. Florida should never be playing the two teams they have played. They need to cut it back to about fifty teams and make those fifty teams only play one another (or at least for ten games). I think it would help out the BCS situation by making teams more comparable. It is pretty clear to me that Notre Dame and Tech are not in the same league as Florida. But the problem is where does Fresno State and Boise State fit into the equation.

4. It looks like Michigan is starting to take it to Notre Dame. Notre Dame seems to be weaker and slower. Charlie Weiss will be coaching quarterbacks in the NFL in a couple of years.

Morning Thoughts

1. I still don't know what to think of Jordan's Hall of Fame speech. I want to say "bitter," but I think it just showed his ambition was sustained by "slights." I am going to have to read The Jordan Rules.

2. I got up this morning and went to Hardees. A Hardees breakfast is a Hardees breakfast. It isn't healthy, but there is something very comforting about it.

3. It will be an interesting NFL season. The Patriots will win a lot of games. The NFC East will beat each other up. The Steelers and Ravens will play great defense and be around at the end. It will be interesting. I am afraid that there where will be one big blown call this year that will outrage most NFL fans. (I know these are all no-shit predictions.)

4. I wonder what will Favre say in his Hall of Fame speech.

5. This should be the most hyped "must-see-TV" weekend in NASCAR. And I don't care. NASCAR has some real problems. I think the winner of the last race before the Chase should automatically be in the Chase. I say this even though I am not a big proponent of the Chase.

The Mystery Of Love

There is this girl graduate student. She has been here almost as long as I have.

There is this guy graduate student. He has only been here a year. He is younger than the girl graduate student.

There is certainly something going on between them. She is always in his office except when he is in her office. It is kind of sweet, more weird. Two kids who aren't kids feeling each other out, trying to hide something that everyone else sees. I don't know.

The sociology of the thing enthralls me.

(It reminds me of a situation from my first year here. Unfortunately, I don't know if any of my readers have been around long enough to remember.)

Morning Thoughts

1. It worries me that it seems that the Washington politicians really want "to do something" about health care. This "something is always better nothing" strategy scares me. I am not a big fan of the theory of second best. I am less a fan of "Let's compromise on something so we can get re-elected" policy.

2. I hope it is a Federer-Nadal U.S. Open Final. I am not a big tennis fan, but that final could be entertaining.

3. I wanted to rant on Virginia Tech's offense. But Alabama was just better. They had bigger, faster, stronger athletes. They had future NFL Hall of Famer Julio Jones. They were just better. Tech will not play anyone close to Alabama again this year. This isn't to say that Tech will finish the season with one loss, but they won't face that talent-level again this year.

4. I mixed coffee with vanilla-caramel tea. I have had worse drinks. I have had better drinks.

5. The introductory offer on my cable just finished. I didn't even know I was paying the introductory offer. (It had been a year.) Part of me wants cancel the cable. I think the Internet service is worth it, but the cable seems high to me especially if I have high-speed Internet.

6. I am late on this one, but if Brandon Marshall had done what he did with any coach I had, he would have been thrown off the field immediately. I know the NFL is different, but I think some wide receiver divas are enabled by weak coaching. Most football players need a combination of discipline-love. When they don't get the proper combination, they have a tendency to screw-up. After the coach gets his "players on the lot" (recruiting in college, draft and free-agency in the NFL), the discipline-love combination is the most important thing a coach does. (The "on-the-lot" analogy comes from my old college coach.)

7. I am not looking forward to the Redskins season this year.

Einstein Quote Of The Day

"The prestige of government has undoubtedly been lowered considerably by the prohibition law. For nothing is more destructive of respect for the government and the law of the land than passing laws which cannot be enforced. It is an open secret that the dangerous increase of crime in the United States is closely connected with this."

This quote got me to thinking about other unenforceable laws. Of course the drug laws come to mind. But I think there might be some applicability to health care too. Maybe I am reaching, but you can't force people to take preventive measures and you can't force people to not try procedures that generate more costs than benefits especially when it comes to life and death.

You can see this in the film The Barbarian Invasions, There are other stories in the press from Britain and other single payer countries. People find ways to work around laws and the system when the law and system does not make sense.

I readily admit this doesn't say much about the U.S. health care debate. But I really question those who are championing a more equitable health care policy. I just don't see it happening in any system, private or public. People will adapt and find ways around mandates. People will shirk unenforceable suggestions. This shirking will only lower the declining prestige of government.

Funniest Youtube Comment I Have Read

"My life was worse than hers. I was the one who had to go out with those ugly,butch ,left wing, [...] lezbo types like Janis Ian. Poor me."

From this song.

Another Thing

As every Nintendo or Windows user knows, every system needs a "reset" button.

9:15AM Tomorrow Morning

I have really bought in to David Allen's GTD system.

The central ideas being that:

1. I have to get everything out of my head and into a system.

2. I have to have a system that continually evolves.

3. I have to have discipline to follow the system.

4. I have to break down tasks/projects/desired outcomes into next actions.

In other words, I have to have a written/electronic plan. I have to be able to change the written/electronic plan. I have to follow the plan. The plan has to be focused on practical "what can I do next" (compartmentalized) things.

For the last few weeks I have been doing pretty good with my system. Sometimes I get lulled into spending too long on the "waiting on..." phase of projects. But I have been doing pretty good.

So I get into the office this morning. I hadn't been there since Friday afternoon. I see a note that says "9:15AM Tomorrow Morning." I have no idea what it is for or what it means or when tomorrow is. I have to take a few deep breathes, but I want to blow up the system.

P.S.

I figured out what the inconsequential note was for, and I guess I can go back to my system.

Full Circle

The background story.

Same coffee shop. I bought a metal pot, knew it wasn't cream, and thoroughly enjoyed the peach tea.

(I used to say having a child was the most self-absorbed vain thing a person can do. But I think blogging is certainly up there.)

I Have A Presentation I Should Be Working On But…

1. First-class on short flights is for suckers, I think. I am sitting in coach with just as much room for half the price. I don't know. I have always heard once you go first-class, you don't go back. But I just don't see it on short flights when the plane isn't full.
   
2. My wife made me get a massage yesterday. I enjoyed it.
   
3. There is a real value to routine. Getting up earlier than you usually do can mess with you. Getting stuck in a bad routine can be destructive, but a good routine can be very comfortable.
   
4. Comfort is probably what I look for most. That is the thing about the massage. I didn't want to do it because it made me uncomfortable ex ante. Ex post I was fine. Once I got in the room I was fine. It is just getting over that initial fear. That feeling of uncomfortable that makes me want to stay in certain routine. That makes me want to stick to the ways "I have always done things."
   
5. Older members of my family also have this anxiety of anything different. It causes problems in later life. It keeps them stuck in destructive routines.
   
6. Now I am going to start working on that presentation.

Amazing Things

1. I woke up this morning in Blacksburg, Virginia at 5:00AM(EST). By 1:30PM(EST), I will be in San Antonio, Texas.
   
2. I am typing this post on the flight.
   
3. I could upload this post for $9.95.
   
4. Since 5:00AM, I have checked my Email four times, once at my apartment, once on the bus to the Roanoke airport, once at the Roanoke airport, and once again at the Atlanta airport.
   
5. I talked to both my dad and my wife while in Atlanta. My dad was in Crozet, Virginia. My wife was in San Antonio. The marginal cost of these calls was $0.
   
6. I just typed "The marginal cost of these were $0." The computer corrected me.
   
7. I am now publishing this post from our apartment in San Antonio. (By the way, I am in the shitter.)
   

   
    

Morning Thoughts

1. I like Google Chrome. But lately it has been giving me "unsafe site" messages for Google sites. This kind of crap makes me wonder.

2. I keep hearing commercials telling people not to say "this is so gay." I don't know what to think about this. Part of me thinks it is the evolution of language. Gay for me has come to mean feminine or girlish. I don't think it is as insulting as the commercials make it out to be, but other derogatory words have evolved out of the language. So maybe I'm wrong, and these commercials are part of our societal progression.

3. I have a lot of baseball cards at home. I have no idea what to do with them. Part of me wants to liquidate them. Another part of me wants to keep them. They will probably stay at my parents' house for another five or ten years until my mom makes me take them.

4. I just listened to Dan Patrick interview Peyton Manning. All I can say is "smooth." I have always liked "edge," but "edge" quickly turns into a disaster. "Edge" usually leads to inconsistency.

5. Anxiety, fear, excitement, worry are all complex emotions.

6. I don't like chicken. It used to be my favorite meat as a kid. (I think I used to like the skin more than anything else.) I fried some skinless chicken in olive oil, seasoned the hell out of it, mixed it with lima beans (which I thoroughly enjoy), and made a decent honey and Dijon mustard sauce. It wasn't bad, but I would rather have a dry hamburger.

I Have Always Enjoyed This Song

Talent And Honesty

My college head coach was a brutally honest evaluator of talent. He didn't sugarcoat things. If you were slow and your hips didn't bend, he told you. He didn't always tell you directly, but he told you.

I didn't realize this for a while. I and many others always thought of him as the master of the "backhanded slap" or the "backhanded compliment." Then he wrote a letter asking for donations to the school from football alumni. There are also a couple of videos out on the web of him talking about the current team. At first this letter and videos reiterated my opinion, but then I realized that in reality, he was just brutally honest. He had lost enough and been fired enough to know: Talent wins football games. Sugarcoated heart makes for good newspaper stories.

I have always thought that economics and good economists describe trade-offs. Every time one makes a decision he gives up something. This blog has trade-offs. This sentence has trade-offs. Giving a donation has trade-offs. What economics has taught me is that there are no free lunches, everything costs, every gain requires some sacrifice, some pain.

But economics doesn't say much about how to deal with the pain. Cost-benefit analysis assumes one knows the cost and the benefits. But in reality we're always guessing. It isn't about probability or expected values; it is guessing and facing the consequences of decisions, accepting pain, accepting brutal honesty concerning our lack of talent.

Sometimes I avoid decisions, because I am scared of the pain. I have never believed in "something beats nothing." There is value in waiting. There is value in agonizing. But economics says very little about when to make a decision or what to do when agonizing starts to adversely affect your life.

But knowing the trade-offs has to help, right?

I Wanted To Say Something About Vick

But Phil Taylor already did.

Vick is just another man captured by the vending machine honey bun. The two P's (power being the other one) has destroyed many men.

All I hope is that Vick doesn't screw up again.

Lighting Strikes

1. When there was lighting, we had to practice in the gym. At first we thought this was great. But we soon found that the conditioning was harder because of the stale air. We also found that hitting the floor because of tennis shoes or unexpected contact was painful and attention grabbing. If you get knocked down outside rarely would the whole team see it. Inside, everyone saw and laughed.

2. I just finished this recent book on business in Russia. I don't have the title or author with me, but it didn't provide any information you couldn't find on the Internet anyway. I took away that Russia provided opportunities for investors, but Russia is much more unpredictable than the U.S. I guess I knew that before I read the book. But it surprised me that the book and Russia in general had so much centralized power in both the public and private fronts. I don't imagine many American C.E.O.s being profiled like the Russians C.E.O.s were. It seemed like they were more important than the business. It was like they were proprietors not C.E.O.s of giant corporations. I know this happens in the U.S. too, and Russia's capitalism is still young. But it concerned me.

3. I am writing boring technical stuff. It is boring. I can say everything in tables, but people need paragraphs. And I am not saying much anyway. It is boring. But I have to do it. And the best way to do anything is to dive in, and let whatever happens happen.

The Vending Machine Honey Bun Revisited

Jason Whitlock reminds me of something I wrote.

Some Statements

1. My umbrella broke. This is very frustrating on rainy days especially when your rain coats are in Texas. I would buy an indestructible umbrella if it was less than $25.

2. It is still hot. But not as hot as it is in Texas.

3. My sophomore year in high school we went 9-1 and lost in the first round of the playoffs to a team quarterbacked by Kelley Washington. I didn't play much, and I don't remember much about two-a-days except it was hot. Not as hot as it is and was in Texas, but hot nevertheless.

4. I have always enjoyed Oingo Boingo's "Just Another Day" and "Wild Sex in the Working Class," but I have changed computers so much I can't find my MP3 copies. This is the digital age.

Another Hot Day

In the ninth grade, we were supposed to start two-a-days at 8:30AM and end at 3:30PM. Everyone was supposed to pack a lunch and get a air-conditioned break between 11:30AM-1:00PM. The first day all of the senior linemen were throwing up. It was hot at 10:30-11:00AM, and they had enough time in the morning to eat breakfast. You could see their cereal and milk coming back out. Five or six junior and senior linemen could not practice during the afternoon session. If you puked, the trainers made you sit out the next session.

The coach decided to make the sessions 6:00AM to 11:30AM with a fifteen minute break. This seemed to work better. All I really think it did was keep the linemen from eating breakfast.

Why Generations Progress Or Why My Son Will Have A Leg-up on Me

I started playing football in the 8th grade. My dad told me I'd better get in shape. So I started running. No, I started jogging. By the time the season started I was doing 2-2.5 miles over a hilly course every day.

After the first day of practice, I was dead. My recovery was better than most of my teammates, but I was exhausted. Those 2-2.5 miles did very little for me. My limits as an athlete were agility, speed, and flexibility. Jogging does nothing to improve these three things. As I progressed through high school, I started to do sprints and other things (including hydrating) to prepare. In college, they gave us a summer workout plan to prepare. But that first day when I was in the 8th grade was hell.

(Nothing really helps with two-a-days. You can't simulate five hours of activity on studded cleats in the August heat. The August heat was what sparked this post.)

The Time To Start Is Today

Some sports' thoughts:

1. NASCAR has to consider rain tires or something. Watkins Glen would have been a fun race to run in the rain. The best drivers and teams would have risen to the top. Running at Daytona or Talladega or Pocono would be tough, but too many races Monday at noon will kill the sport. Once the NFL starts, NASCAR doesn't have much pull. It has to take advantage of the opportunities it gets.

2. I don't give a damn about the Red Sox and Yankees. It is like Goliath versus Goliath. But after I accept that they both cannot lose, I enjoy watching them play each other occasionally. The Yankees have a hell of a lineup.

3. The Braves beat the Dodgers three out of four, and I don't care. They are a .500 team. Look at their statistics compared to the rest of the National League. I think they are 7 to 9 in every category.

I Don't Do This Often

I agree with Herbert's point that most men are misogynists. Most heterosexual men have a little "women hate" in them. Just like most heterosexual women have a little "men hate" in them. "Hate" is a bad thing.

I even agree that society and media perpetuates "women hate" probably a little more than they do "men hate." The reasons why and the innateness of these reasons would make a more interesting commentary. But to blame "women hate" for mass murders and use this as evidence for gun control is elephant shit. It is a complete misrepresentation of scope. The opportunity for mass murder is high. A man can go into a gym or school and kill females at any time. But more than 99% of the time, mass murder does not happen. It is tragic when it happens, and I am not trying to be callous to the situation or the victims. I am trying to be honest about the situation. We live in a relatively safe society even though there is a lot of "hate' in it.

Mass murderers are crazy people. They are psychotic. They have deep issues that they cannot solve by themselves. They need help. But they are crazy and evil and not normal. They are the extreme exception not the rule. If you want to argue for tighter gun control or a change of the way women are represented in the media, then do not use mass murderers as examples supporting your argument. It just doesn't make sense.

A Computer Crash (And A Post) That Means Nothing

A few weeks ago, my RAM went bad. I called Dell. I had two weeks left on my warranty. They would fix it.

But I was going to be gone for two and half weeks. I needed a computer to travel with. I went to Wal-Mart and bought a $300 netbook. I am happy with it, and it served me well on my travels.

My Dell was repaired ten days before I got back, and now it seems to be working well. I did not renew my warranty even though Dell's service (and FedEx) impressed me.

This post had no point but to acknowledge that it isn't the shocks that happen to us day-to-day. It is how we handle those shocks.

So I Went To This Conference...

I went to this presentation about a health experiment conducted with mothers and their children. The female researcher started to tear up when she started to talk about some of the inconsistent mothers she observed. She said something like "I don't know what these kids go through at home."

I have to say the moment was a little awkward. But it was the most memorable thing from the conference. I walked away knowing that the woman cared about her research and genuinely cared about people, and that is more than I can say about most of the other presentations.

David Allen Podcast

Allen speaking about previous commitments: "You can't walk away from this stuff by going numb to it."

This podcast was definitely worth listening to.

I enjoyed this one too.

Modern Agriculture

Tyler Cowen at MarginalRevolution.com linked to this essay. It is worth reading.

I was going to write an essay for a contest that asked (I am paraphrasing) what will U.S. agriculture look like and what does it look like now. I was going to build the essay around the view from the back parking lot of a church: On the right was a cow pasture with big electricity towers running through it. The pasture ended with a forest. On the left was a the preacher's garden, further left was his house and his neighborhood. Separating left and right was a creek, and in the distance was Interstate 81.

The idea was that agriculture is complicated and ever-changing, and agriculture tomorrow won't look like agriculture today or twenty years ago. It was and is this mix of conventional and new and organic and inorganic.

In other words, agriculture is kind of like everything else.

The (Un)Fairness Of It All

The problem with Keynesian stimulus is that it has to go to someone or some group. My Blazer blew up last year before the "Cash for Clunkers" program. I don't know anyone who works for GM or Chrysler. I am not planning on buying a house for a few years, and I have kept up the payments on my condo. I might get a job with the federal government, but I am worried their hiring will slow down before I can move to Washington.

Stimulus and government programs are always selective. Some people get selected. Some people don't.

Halfway Business Is Not Business At All Or Saving Money Might Actually Cost You Money

My aunt works in a small town Post Office. I live and frequent another small town Post Office. To deal with the recession and budget shortfalls, both of these offices have closed their customer service centers on Saturday. My aunt admits that Saturday is (was) by far their busiest day. The post office I frequent always seemed to be busiest on Saturday. Both were only opened for three to four hours on Saturday anyway. They usually had to stay open twenty minutes later than their closing time because of the line that "last minute" customers formed.

But that is not the whole story. The Offices will still have to be open on Saturday for people to put up and deliver mail. They way my aunt explained it to me, each office is only saving at most 5-6 man hours, probably less.

Virginia is also closing rest areas along its interstates. Some states have privatized-franchised rest areas. I know that those vending machines could make money. I know some people would spend a small fee to park and use a toilet. My travels have taught me that stopping at convenience stores and fast food places when you don't need gas is costly and bad for your health.

I have said this a million times, but economists have failed to teach anything. Maybe I am wrong and these closings will save money, and I appreciate that the people who made these decisions know their situations better than me. But you can't throw fixed and variable costs and revenue out the window when you're making decisions just because you're in the quasi-public realm.

Please Say It Ain't Rickey (But It Has To Be Right?)

Canseco has been proven right more times than he has been proven wrong when it comes to steroids.

I really think the whole thing is a non-issue, and I still will think Rickey is a hall of famer. Maybe it will open the door for McGwire and Bonds. Really I think the whole thing is just a funny story.

A Theory Of Life

Life is about dealing with bullshit. It is about dealing with the bad, the good, and the ugly.

To deal with the shit, people pick ex ante strategies like religion, philosophy, drugs, etc. During a life time, an individual will go through many different strategies as ex post outcomes will lead them to reevaluate their priors.

The thing is to not get too caught up in others' ex ante strategies. Every one has find their own way, and the bullshit will always be there. But if we stay focused, we can get through.

Three Books I Want To Read And The Dilemma Of Special Offers

1. Tyler Cowen's book came out Tuesday. The link offered a special offer that I did not take advantage of. I will be doing a significant amount of flying over the next few weeks. But I am too cheap to buy the hard cover edition. I got his Discover Your Inner Economist for $5, and it yielded significant consumer surplus. I am just not sure about paying full price, especially now that the special offer has passed.

2. Joe Posnanski is coming out with a book in September. I thought his Soul of Baseball was the most life-affirming book I have ever read. He is going to have some special offer from his blog too, but he hasn't decided exactly what to do yet.

3. Bill Simmons also has a new book coming out too. I don't think he will have any special offers, but I would like to read (skim) the book. Simmons has a passion for the NBA like Posnanski's passion for baseball.

My dilemma is as much as I enjoy reading good books, I don't enjoy buying new expensive books. I get a big kick out of going through the bargain bins and picking out books that might be good or classics that I should read one day. I probably read 1 out of 4 books I buy. I have many books in my library that have not been read.

I guess the point is I need to get a job and/or get busier, so I don't spend so much time thinking about what books to buy.

"Let's Go Racin' In The Streets"

I grew up with the guys at the grocery store. These guys were a collection of fuck-ups. With apologies to my dad (and he was from a different generation), you don't work at the grocery store past your twenty-fifth birthday unless you have a little fuck-up in you.

There was the guy who left but came back after his third DUI forced him to live with his parents. There was the guy who married a girl for six months leaving just enough time for her to ruin his credit and steal every dime he had. There was the guy who married a mail-order Russian bride getting a teenage son as part of the deal. There was the owner's son who could never be a functional addict like his father. There was the guy who was an heir to a 1000 acres who died way too young.

They were all good guys. But just like me, they were fuck-ups.

The thing about being a fuck-up is like any other addiction. You never get past it. No matter how many times you don't fuck-up, you know a fuck-up is coming. That knowing can eat you alive. It gnaws and chews at your stomach. It sucks at your soul. You never escape it. Most men learn how to put up a confident facade, but that knowing will always be there.

Maybe it is original sin, maybe it is the curse of knowledge, maybe it is me. But:

"Tonight, tonight the highway's bright
Out of our way, mister, you best keep
'Cause summer's here and the time is right
For racin' in the street."

The Power Of YouTube

I watched this video. I was impressed. This led me to watching/listening to everything else she had on YouTube.

But I haven't spent a dime on her. This worries the economist in me. Advertising dollars are only effective if people eventually buy what you're advertising. I am sure someone smarter than me will make this work, but I probably should enjoy it while I can.

Additional Thoughts From Last Post's Number 2

This Jeremy Mayfield thing is interesting from a legal-sports perspective.

I question a league's ability to take an individual player's livelihood away without due process. I would rather Mayfield's sponsors or team owners (if he tries to drive for another team) take it away. I have always felt this is the most effective form of punishment.

I also would rather see a criminal judge or jury determine if Mayfield is a meth (ab)user. If he has it in it his system, then he is probably still doing it or has done it repeatedly. I am sure a good detective could find the criminal evidence needed to convict. A criminal sentence is much harsher than any league suspension.

I also think the media mis-reported what the judge's ruling was. All he said was NASCAR could not suspend Mayfield while he was "appealing." He said nothing explicitly about Mayfield's guilt or innocence. The Stallworth case is another example of reporters not explaining law and rulings properly. From what I read, the reason he only got 30 days was because the prosecution didn't have much of a case showing Stallworth was negligent. If Stallworth wasn't drunk and stoned, he would have probably had no charges filed against him. (Admittedly, I might be wrong on my interpretation of the events.)

MLB implicitly suspended Barry Bonds last year. Jose Canseco said MLB did it to him too. I have a feeling Vick and Pac-Man are going to go through the same thing. These implicit suspensions because no one is willing-to-pay (put up with your shit) are much more effective and hold more deterring power.

Morning Reads

1. GGM sent me this about my parents' Representative. I took offense to this sentence: "The rest wouldn't take the political risk of voting for even a fairly weak climate bill that doesn't even come close to doing what science demands." You have to read the article and link within the article to get what I saw as the contradiction. It keeps coming back to what I've been trying to get at in these last few posts. Politics and life is a big debate. What is important is the debate not one particular point of view. David Brooks also addresses this and larger issues this morning.

2. I am not a lawyer or a legal scholar. But I don't know what to think of Madoff getting 150 years. I would rather him be making as much money as he can for the rest of life to pay off as much as he can of the civil suits. The line between criminality and civility seems to be really blurry, and the punishment seems to not fit the crime. Not to beat a dead horse, but how many dogs could Vick's salary have saved if was allowed to continue playing in the NFL? Putting a guy in jail for 150 years isn't going to create wealth or retribution for any of his victims.

3. I don't discuss the Iraq war much. Mostly because I don't know exactly what I think of it. But the following quote from this article sums how complex the situation is:

“Right now we are balanced on a knife’s edge,” said Hamid Majeed, a Sunni speaking near the rubble of a Shiite mosque that was blown up in 2006. “We do not like the Americans, but we also thank God when we see them with the Iraqi Army, because we know we can trust them more than the government forces.”

This editorial also explains some of the complexities.

We All Knew They Couldn't Hold It

I guess it goes back to: "Root for good stories. Bet on talent."

I have always wondered what Mike Vick could do if he was a soccer player (raised playing soccer to get the foot-eye coordination). He would be competitive with these Brazilian guys, wouldn't he?

For some odd reason, I would like to find out the answer.

Bad Science Or Bad Research II

From the New York Times

I have always been of the opinion that many of the most important discoveries come when you are looking for an answer to a question but then find an answer to another more important question. The question becomes can a grant-making process be developed that puts people in position to answer important questions without quelling their creativity and their ability to answer other questions that were not in their original grant proposal? I guess it comes back to the ex ante versus ex post thing. Research involves so much ex ante uncertainty but also requires so much ex ante funding. Ex post, research results are "taken care" of by the market. But ex ante expectations rarely equal ex post returns, as evidenced by my dissertation which I am going to start working on right now.

Hopefully Last Post Of The Day

When I get bored, I read my blog. This serves a few purposes:

1. I recognize that I have experienced little growth. Many personal posts are about the same issues over and over. I find this both depressing and encouraging.
2. I realize I am not that bad. I have a few readable ideas. I write okay. I build confidence.
3. I realize that the blog represents recorded practice. Practice can be a good thing.

Number 2 is the most important function of reading your own blog.

Bad Science Or Bad Research

I was going to compare the batting statistics of Red Sox and the Braves. My point was that the Braves have a similar batting average to the Red Sox, a better ERA, but their OBP and OPS was much lower. Therefore they score a lot fewer runs and win fewer games.

This is all true, but it is no where near as pronounced as I thought. (This page's team statistics started my thought pattern. This page's more detailed statistics ended my thought pattern.)

So I wasn't going "publish" anything. The data didn't exactly fit my theory, so I was just going to keep it to myself. And really, in the middle of a season even if my theory was true, it has very little prescriptive value. What are the controllable variables in a Major League baseball player? Terry Pendelton isn't able to get Francoeur to walk more (take more pitches) especially mid-season. I somewhat doubt if you can get many Major League batters to change their approach in the middle of their careers. My theory is like saying "The sky is blue." Who gives a shit?

I am afraid that is much research. The Kevin Murphy interview I linked to in the last post discusses some of these problems as related to health care.

Unexpected Things I Have Read This Morning

1. Farrah Fawcett and Ayn Rand were somewhat friends. Rand was a complex character.

2. Kevin Murphy and the Chicago economists do have a wide breadth.

(These first two links came from MarginalRevolution.com.)

3. The New York Times is beating this Sanford thing to death. I guess they did the same with Spitzer. I read a few commentaries on the hypocrisy of the "right." But I didn't see any commentaries about: "This is why we can't give any person too much power. This is why well-intentioned government is corrupted by individual politicians. This is why we have to be careful about government. It isn't the affair as much as it is the lying and mis-spending of tax-payer dollars in a really poor state. Power can corrupt anyone, so we have to be careful." The New York Times coverage isn't unexpected, but the number of articles on a South Carolina governor surprised me.

4. Milton Bradley is crazy as hell. Lou Pinella isn't going to take it anymore. This isn't unexpected, but I have never liked the Cubs.

5. The Braves suck. This certainly isn't surprising. All I can say is I would rather have Barry Bonds in the outfield than Anderson or Francoeur. I actually think you could put McClouth in left-center and another young-fast guy in right-center and have Bonds be a de facto DH and have a better chance at winning. The lack of offense is going to kill Jurrjens and the other young pitchers. Read Pat Jordan's A False Spring to learn about what confidence means to young pitchers.

751st Post Or Late Afternoon Thoughts

1. Michael Jackson was a significant part of my childhood. There are only so many artists I can say that about. I wore out my Bad cassette tape. He was a creative genius. There are only so many people you can say that about.

2. I am listening to the Cubs play the White Sox. Jermaine Dye just hit a home run. Jermaine Dye used to play for the Braves.

3. Chris Tucker was in the Rush Hours. Chris Rock was in Lethal Weapon 4. I get these confused, and I have to remind myself.

4. "If you want to make the world a better place, take a look at yourself and make a change."

5. The fact that YouTube made it through the day without crashing is a credit to human ingenuity.

6. I wish I could moonwalk. I think if I could moonwalk or dance in general, I would be a better researcher.

7. Ron Santo just forgot that he was in an American League ballpark and talked about "pitcher coming up next." At least he admitted his mistake in the next half-inning.

Teaching Or The Value Of Doing Something Different

I sat through a lesson last night from an old school teacher. It was straightforward. He was somewhat prepared. The message was concise and hammered home.

All I wanted was something different. I wanted a tangential story, a little fire, some thing else.

One of the big questions in life is when to switch? When to change? When to try something different? You see it in sports. You see it in policy. You see it every day at an individual level.

So here is another exam question:

A professor has taught a class for 20 years. He has numerous exam questions, homework problems, assignments, PowerPoint slides etc. etc saved up. He gets average to above average reviews every year. He cares about teaching, but it is not his main source of income. He has some radical ideas that could make his class better or his class worse. These ideas would take time to develop but might also save him time in the future. What does he do?

A Post That Is A Distraction But Hopefully A Good Distraction

The Marginal Revolution blogosphere has started discussing median voter theory. Here is a link to a summary post.

I always thought the median voter theory was interesting didactically. It teaches students about how democratic elections work and could work. It also explains national politicians, especially presidential candidates. But like most economic theories, I don't think it is an empirical theory. It is based on unmeasurable ever-changing (and indifferent) preferences.

I am not responding to the exact arguments made in Yglesia's post, and I don't think Cowen says much. The problem with economists is that they have things to say about the media, elections, health care, and many other things, but they don't have answers. But writing and media and being heard has become more and more about answers. Health care, GM and Chrysler, and many other issues are clusterfucks. There are no "easy" answers. I would argue that government intervention isn't the best or even a good answer, but it would just be an argument, just rhetoric.

The blogosphere and decentralized media is a good way to argue. The U.S.' three branches, checks and balances system is a good way to argue. The important thing is for the system to allow for arguments. The system becomes more important than answers. Economists need to do a better job of explicitly recognizing this in their work.

If I ever get my shit straight, my economist license, and a job that allows me to do things I want, I will study the contextual nature of preferences and emphasize systems, but for now, I'd better get back to my dissertation.

Some Things

1. Talent usually trumps "heart" and good stories. Root for "heart" and good stories, bet on talent.

2. No matter what one has to do, he has to get started. Coffee, tea, Red Bull, whatever it takes.

3. I want to do a series called "The Economics of..." I want to start with the "The Economics of Marriage Ceremonies." My sister married Saturday. As I was eating the Prime Rib, I could dream of my measly inheritance going down the shitter.

A Quick Healthcare Thought

One of the most discouraging things I have ever seen is my grandfather (and my grandmother also) growing old, getting sick and tired, and my parents and aunts and uncles ability and inability to take care of them. My grandfather turned (horrible word) from this virile "stormed the beaches at Normandy in '44 and could do it still in '94" to a man who could not and did not want to walk. I can't say he "gave up," but I can say that towards the end, he needed to be treated like a child.

This was the problem my parents and aunts and uncles faced. Here was a man who could not make decisions for himself anymore. A man who needed pushing to get better and survive. They could never fully accept the new parental role that they had inherited. They still wanted to treat him like an adult, but he wasn't acting like an adult. The doctors didn't help. Until the end, they kept asking him questions about decisions he couldn't really make.

The whole situation was sad. Because part of the reason he was acting like a child was because his body was breaking, he was confined to bed, and I am sure he felt like a child but with the mind and experience of an adult.

Most of the health care policy proposals I see are based on the idea that decisions need to be taken away from people like my grandfather and my parents and given to some government or insurance authority. My experience suggests this might be a good thing. It might make my life easier when my parents get old.

But it also scares me. Because I see too many fine lines, and I don't think the essential problems are being addressed. The problem is information and fixed costs. I have addressed these issues in the past, here and here.

I guess what I am saying is that as sad and discouraging as my grandfather's situation was, I don't know if I would have had it any other way.

One Could Waste A Day On YouTube Or Watching TV But There Are Only So Many Days

The last few months I have been thinking a lot about my career, about "what I want to be when I grow up." My general conclusion is that I have the question all wrong. The right question is what should I be doing right now. Of course, the "right nows" need purpose if I want to do anything constructive, but the idea is that careers more times than not just happen. There are some people who plan on being doctors or teachers from the time they enter grade school, and some of them get there. But most people are like me and don't have the attention span.

Just like I don't have the attention span to properly finish this post.

Some Things

1. I am getting into this hockey game. I am rooting for Detroit. I don't know why. My future brother-in-law is from Pittsburgh. I like the Pistons. Here is an idea from an announcer that you don't hear much, "Some times the hockey gods aren't with you." I always recognized that some times it is better to be lucky than talented. But most NBA and NFL announcers rarely admit this fact.

2. I walked from the office to my apartment. It took me a little less than an hour. It was good exercise, but I don't know if I will keep it up.

3. I switched over to C-SPAN from the hockey game. I will more than likely never buy an American vehicle. I don't know how I feel about this yet. But I don't think I will lose any sleep.

4. Lebron versus the Lakers would have a lot more fun than what we have now.

The Braves

I saw the Braves play the Brewers on Saturday. It was two of the worse offensive teams I have ever seen. The stadium wasn't very full, and most of the tickets were sold at very low prices.

I will concentrate on the Braves. Besides Chipper Jones (OPS+=157), Brian McCann (OPS+=147) and some times Yunel Escobar (OPS+=110), they have no offense. McClouth will eventually help, but he is not enough. They have a back-up catcher and some back-up outfielders hitting the ball and getting on base, and they need to find ways to get these guys on the field. But they have very little offense.

Their overall offense strategy is completely opposite of the established "Moneyball" norms of "getting on base," "taking pitches," and "power is important." Some of this is the Braves and Bobby Cox have had some success with "pitching, defense, singles and sacrifices." Some of it is arrogance. Some of it is the parity of professional sports. The fact that the Braves can be a .500 team and kind of (but not really) in the NL East race helps to keep the few fans still interested in the Braves buying tickets (and memorabilia).

The points of this post are the following:

1. Many successful people base their lives on routine.

2. Change is hard especially when you're older.

3. It is hard to be above average for any extended period of time.

You Do

They say beauty is defined by them

They say they have answers

To the questions everyone asks

They tell you about coffee

And tea

Magnificent tea

And you want them so bad

But not at all 

At the same time

They don't care 

What you want

They don't care about you

Or your questions

And you think of your poor dad

Who is not poor at all

He don't drink coffee

And those limey bastards 

Used to stop the war to drink tea

But they don't care about your dad

Or limey bastards

Or war

You look in the mirror

You see what you see

Eyes that have seen too much

But not enough

A face worn

But still young

And you gird your strength

And grit your teeth

And you struggle

Because they don't have to care

But you do

Another Lebron Post

I just heard these lyrics:

"I'm a goddam sore loser."

And that is okay.   If you want to shake people's hands and talk to the media after losses, then you are not really competitive.  You do it, because everyone thinks you should do it.  Not because you want to.  

It is time for Lebron to start voicing what he really wants and stop worrying about everyone else. And Lebron wants an NBA title.  

Danny Ferry better get out of his way.   

Maybe I Was Wrong

Lebron might be a Romantic figure.  We might be "witnessing" the greatest.

But if he doesn't win, I will be disappointed.  There are only so many "next years."  He is one injury away from irrelevancy.  

Depressing

I thought Lebron could be a great Romantic figure.  I thought he could single-handily slay the mediocrity of the NBA.  For some reason, I really wanted to see this.  I didn't feel like I was old enough to appreciate Jordan's reign.  I wanted to see the "greatest."

But I will not see it this year.  And I am disappointed.   

The Value Of A Bottle Cap Or An Exam Question

Coke offers rewards if you have the patience to enter their bottle cap codes on the Internet.  Eight bottle caps lead to a free 20oz drink.  A 20oz drink costs $1.49 at the campus store.  It is less at other places.  Coke seems to be doing away with 20oz bottles in favor of half-liter bottles.  Many people recycle their bottles with the caps left on them.  I recover these caps from the recycling bins.  This costs me very little except for funny looks from passer-bys.  I readily admit I drink too much soda.  It is bad for my acid reflux.  I prefer Diet Pepsi to Coke Zero or Diet Coke.  I usually buy store brand soda (Big K).  There are other rewards (offers) from Coke for bottle cap points, but I find these unattainable and overpriced.  

What is the value of a Coke bottle cap?

    

NBA Morning Thoughts And Another Stupid Thing I Have Done Or Doing A Good Thing The Wrong Way

1.  I really want to get into the NBA playoffs.  The Lakers are my villains.  I want Cleveland to win.  I thought and still think that Houston doesn't have a chance without Yao.  Dallas is tragic.  Denver is a story.  The Magic, Celtics, and Hawks just aren't that good.  If everything goes as planned and there is a Cavs-Lakers final , I will stay interested.  If not, I will pay attention but not care.

2.  I grew up on the Bad Boy Pistons.  Rest in peace Chuck Daly.        

3.  I went home Saturday.  The grass was long.  My dad had to work Sunday.  I got on the riding mower and started to cut.  I was being a good son.  I was bringing up mud, and the other half of the grass wasn't trimmed.  I blamed it on the grass being wet.  The tires were pushing the grass down, and since the grass was wet, it didn't have resiliency.  I finish.  I park the mower.  The grass looks horrible.  When I was a kid, it wouldn't have been acceptable to my dad or myself.  Now it was cut.  And that was good enough.  My dad gets home.  "Why is this so uneven?"  He looks at the mower, and it has a flat tire.  Yes, I mowed the lawn with a flat tire.  We pumped up the tire, and my dad went back over the lawn as I push mowed some places.  It still looks horrible, and I am worried about some spots that were cut too low.  I might have brought my parents neighborhood shame.  But it is cut, and I am back in Blacksburg.       

Sunday Afternoon Or Stupid Things I Have Done

1.  I listened to the Braves beat the Phillies.  The Braves are a .500 team.  And a lucky .500 team has a chance.  All I need a chance is to keep my interest.

2.  I am listening to the Yankees beat the Orioles.  I don't like the Yankees.  I don't really care about the Orioles.  I just find the Yankee situation entertaining  The Braves are a .500 team.  At least they don't spend a billion dollars on players and a new stadium to be a .500 team.  

3.  From Ayn Rand's Foreword to We The Living: "Writers are made, not born.  To be exact, writers are self-made."  I find this encouraging.

4.  I did a little Spring cleaning yesterday.  I changed the bed and put on a Summer blanket.  I left the windows cracked last night.  I woke up shivering this morning.

5.  I have shoes that have to be fifteen years old.  They were one of the first pairs I bought when my feet stopped growing.   I still wear them.  There is a crack in the sole.  When it is rains for 40 days and 40 nights, one should not wear fifteen year old shoes with a crack in the sole.

6.  I've been trying to do too much and not getting anything done.  It is time to rectify this.

    

       

You Have To Believe

The belief that you have something relevant to say has to supersede the fear that the people who hear won't care.  

Depression is letting the fear of people not caring get in the way of the belief that you have something relevant to say.  

It really doesn't matter what is.  All that matters is that you believe, and you don't let anyone take that belief away from you.    

Some More Things

1.  I think it is time to close this school for good.

2.  Twitter.  I don't know what to think about it.

3.  I thumb downed Coldplay today.  I had to do it.

4.  Three things are better than none.  I guess.     

Some Things To (Hopefully) Get Me Started

1.  I can't decide what makes you stupider:  

1.  Sports Talk Radio  

2.  Country Music Radio Stations  

3.  Reality TV Shows

2.  Getting started is imperative to finishing anything.  

3.  I slow-cooked this Boston Butt.  I tried to mimic North Carolina Barbecue.  But I didn't have the ingredients.  I didn't have the energy and time to do it right.  So my finished product wasn't great.  It was (barely) edible, but it wasn't great.   There is a lesson here.  But I can't determine what exactly the lesson means.  Maybe the lesson is that the Boston Butt is really insignificant in the grand scheme.

4.  This A-Rod book could be an interesting character study if Pat Jordan did it.  I am not old-school, but there seems to be too much inuendo and unnamed sources in Roberts' work.  Pat Jordan would have followed A-Rod around for a week or six months and captured his ego-mania with specific quotes and stories.  

5.  This one is complicated, so bear with me.  I wonder when some one will start a (Swine) Flu research foundation.  I have always had an issue with people who have been directly affected by a disease or situation starting foundations and raising money for these or other related foundations.  Michael J. Fox comes to mind.  He is a good guy and has done a lot of good things.  But if he started raising money for heart disease or cancer or AIDS, I would have more respect for him.  "I have Parkinson's disease, but AIDS affects a lot more people and is more devastating."  The idea being that it would be less self-serving more utilitarian and encourage cynical (people who believe in incentive-theory) people like myself.  The point here is that there are a lot of good causes and flu research is one of them, but the relative importance of these is very subjective.