Some Things

1. I don't know what to think about small unprofitable airports. I do prefer them to large airports, but I don't see much (any) public good value in them.
   
2. I did drink most of the coffee from yesterday. It did clean out my system.
   
3. I've never bought a newspaper. I don't think I ever will. I always thought that paper vending machines were an interesting test of honesty, but I've never bought one.
   
4. The ads on the blog are just an experiment. I am not delusional enough to think I will make any money. Personally, I read everything off of Google Reader anyway.

Einstein Quote Of The Day

"Measured objectively, what a man can wrest from Truth by passionate striving is utterly infinitesimal. But the striving frees us from the bonds of the self and makes us comrades of those who are the best and the greatest."

For some reason, this quote gives me comfort.

Bad Coffee

I didn't get my normal eight hours last night. I needed a pick me up. I made some coffee in my office. It isn't very good.

The coffee was old. The coffeemaker needed a good cleaning. The finished product just sucks.

I shouldn't drink it, but I will. At least it will suppress my appetite.

 

What Does It Mean To Be A Professional?

Last week some guy who irritated me and basically questioned my work ethic/manhood asked me what my future goals were. Anyone who has read more than five posts on this blog knows I have no goals. I am a confused guy struggling to find my way in the world. I am confident I will get there, but honestly, I am not the kind of guy who is ever going to verbalize future goals. I am superstitious enough to believe that verbalization will guarantee my failure. I am also realistic enough to think that future goals change daily and are dependent on an amount of luck. My only real goal is to live, and I think that is everyone's real goal.

I gave some quick and unthoughtful answer. But here are some possible professional goals that I might pursue in the future.

1. I want to convince and cajole other similar professionals that every problem is not empirical. I want them to see that many problems cannot be simplified into observable data. I want them realize how foolish some of their answers are.
   
2. I want to be a professional who contributes to solutions. I don't care how small or temporary the problems are, but I want to be part of recognizable and implementable, not optimal, solutions.
   
3. I want to describe problems in the truest light I can. I don't want to ignore attributes without admitting that I am ignoring them. I don't believe in objectivity, but I want really "call things like I see them."
   

    

Another Healthcare Thought

I have been in six different emergency rooms. Three were in predominantly rural areas. Two were in suburban-urban areas. One was in an urban area. One of the hospitals in the suburban area was a private hospital, and one was a public hospital (that I think was just discussed in a USA Today cover story). Of course they were all different experiences. But it made me think about the spatial-transportation-Poisson problems involved in healthcare. The rural hospitals were underutilized in many respects. (I will say that most of my experience with them had to do with broken limbs. The orthopedists took an hour to get there in each case, but I was given a room/tent by myself to wait.) The capacity and service of the suburban hospitals depended on what time of day I was there. The urban hospital was an experience in itself. I also fully admit that I went to the emergency room a few times for non-emergency reasons but Mom reasons. Today I would have sucked it up or have gone to an urgent care facility.

This post really has no point, and I have no answers. But it shows how complicated of a problem healthcare really is and shows how bad of an idea it might be to push something through Congress to create the illusion that you are "doing something."

(This post made me think about some of these issues.)

College Football

1. It is rare that there are two games on a Saturday where I bet most of the nation is wishing that all four teams would lose. Notre Dame versus Michigan, USC versus Ohio State are like that today.

2. My college coach said that Bear Bryant said that "Out-of-conference, you schedule one team you're better than, one team you that is better than you, and one team you're even with." (This was before teams played what seems to be an endless out-of-conference schedule.) I think Tech has scheduled that way this year. So next week, the team that they are even with, is the real test.

3. I still say that the problem with Division I football is there are too many fringe teams. Marshall and Tech should never play one another. Texas should never play Wyoming. TCU should never play Virginia. Florida should never be playing the two teams they have played. They need to cut it back to about fifty teams and make those fifty teams only play one another (or at least for ten games). I think it would help out the BCS situation by making teams more comparable. It is pretty clear to me that Notre Dame and Tech are not in the same league as Florida. But the problem is where does Fresno State and Boise State fit into the equation.

4. It looks like Michigan is starting to take it to Notre Dame. Notre Dame seems to be weaker and slower. Charlie Weiss will be coaching quarterbacks in the NFL in a couple of years.

Morning Thoughts

1. I still don't know what to think of Jordan's Hall of Fame speech. I want to say "bitter," but I think it just showed his ambition was sustained by "slights." I am going to have to read The Jordan Rules.

2. I got up this morning and went to Hardees. A Hardees breakfast is a Hardees breakfast. It isn't healthy, but there is something very comforting about it.

3. It will be an interesting NFL season. The Patriots will win a lot of games. The NFC East will beat each other up. The Steelers and Ravens will play great defense and be around at the end. It will be interesting. I am afraid that there where will be one big blown call this year that will outrage most NFL fans. (I know these are all no-shit predictions.)

4. I wonder what will Favre say in his Hall of Fame speech.

5. This should be the most hyped "must-see-TV" weekend in NASCAR. And I don't care. NASCAR has some real problems. I think the winner of the last race before the Chase should automatically be in the Chase. I say this even though I am not a big proponent of the Chase.

The Mystery Of Love

There is this girl graduate student. She has been here almost as long as I have.

There is this guy graduate student. He has only been here a year. He is younger than the girl graduate student.

There is certainly something going on between them. She is always in his office except when he is in her office. It is kind of sweet, more weird. Two kids who aren't kids feeling each other out, trying to hide something that everyone else sees. I don't know.

The sociology of the thing enthralls me.

(It reminds me of a situation from my first year here. Unfortunately, I don't know if any of my readers have been around long enough to remember.)

Morning Thoughts

1. It worries me that it seems that the Washington politicians really want "to do something" about health care. This "something is always better nothing" strategy scares me. I am not a big fan of the theory of second best. I am less a fan of "Let's compromise on something so we can get re-elected" policy.

2. I hope it is a Federer-Nadal U.S. Open Final. I am not a big tennis fan, but that final could be entertaining.

3. I wanted to rant on Virginia Tech's offense. But Alabama was just better. They had bigger, faster, stronger athletes. They had future NFL Hall of Famer Julio Jones. They were just better. Tech will not play anyone close to Alabama again this year. This isn't to say that Tech will finish the season with one loss, but they won't face that talent-level again this year.

4. I mixed coffee with vanilla-caramel tea. I have had worse drinks. I have had better drinks.

5. The introductory offer on my cable just finished. I didn't even know I was paying the introductory offer. (It had been a year.) Part of me wants cancel the cable. I think the Internet service is worth it, but the cable seems high to me especially if I have high-speed Internet.

6. I am late on this one, but if Brandon Marshall had done what he did with any coach I had, he would have been thrown off the field immediately. I know the NFL is different, but I think some wide receiver divas are enabled by weak coaching. Most football players need a combination of discipline-love. When they don't get the proper combination, they have a tendency to screw-up. After the coach gets his "players on the lot" (recruiting in college, draft and free-agency in the NFL), the discipline-love combination is the most important thing a coach does. (The "on-the-lot" analogy comes from my old college coach.)

7. I am not looking forward to the Redskins season this year.

Einstein Quote Of The Day

"The prestige of government has undoubtedly been lowered considerably by the prohibition law. For nothing is more destructive of respect for the government and the law of the land than passing laws which cannot be enforced. It is an open secret that the dangerous increase of crime in the United States is closely connected with this."

This quote got me to thinking about other unenforceable laws. Of course the drug laws come to mind. But I think there might be some applicability to health care too. Maybe I am reaching, but you can't force people to take preventive measures and you can't force people to not try procedures that generate more costs than benefits especially when it comes to life and death.

You can see this in the film The Barbarian Invasions, There are other stories in the press from Britain and other single payer countries. People find ways to work around laws and the system when the law and system does not make sense.

I readily admit this doesn't say much about the U.S. health care debate. But I really question those who are championing a more equitable health care policy. I just don't see it happening in any system, private or public. People will adapt and find ways around mandates. People will shirk unenforceable suggestions. This shirking will only lower the declining prestige of government.

Funniest Youtube Comment I Have Read

"My life was worse than hers. I was the one who had to go out with those ugly,butch ,left wing, [...] lezbo types like Janis Ian. Poor me."

From this song.

Another Thing

As every Nintendo or Windows user knows, every system needs a "reset" button.

9:15AM Tomorrow Morning

I have really bought in to David Allen's GTD system.

The central ideas being that:

1. I have to get everything out of my head and into a system.

2. I have to have a system that continually evolves.

3. I have to have discipline to follow the system.

4. I have to break down tasks/projects/desired outcomes into next actions.

In other words, I have to have a written/electronic plan. I have to be able to change the written/electronic plan. I have to follow the plan. The plan has to be focused on practical "what can I do next" (compartmentalized) things.

For the last few weeks I have been doing pretty good with my system. Sometimes I get lulled into spending too long on the "waiting on..." phase of projects. But I have been doing pretty good.

So I get into the office this morning. I hadn't been there since Friday afternoon. I see a note that says "9:15AM Tomorrow Morning." I have no idea what it is for or what it means or when tomorrow is. I have to take a few deep breathes, but I want to blow up the system.

P.S.

I figured out what the inconsequential note was for, and I guess I can go back to my system.

Full Circle

The background story.

Same coffee shop. I bought a metal pot, knew it wasn't cream, and thoroughly enjoyed the peach tea.

(I used to say having a child was the most self-absorbed vain thing a person can do. But I think blogging is certainly up there.)

I Have A Presentation I Should Be Working On But…

1. First-class on short flights is for suckers, I think. I am sitting in coach with just as much room for half the price. I don't know. I have always heard once you go first-class, you don't go back. But I just don't see it on short flights when the plane isn't full.
   
2. My wife made me get a massage yesterday. I enjoyed it.
   
3. There is a real value to routine. Getting up earlier than you usually do can mess with you. Getting stuck in a bad routine can be destructive, but a good routine can be very comfortable.
   
4. Comfort is probably what I look for most. That is the thing about the massage. I didn't want to do it because it made me uncomfortable ex ante. Ex post I was fine. Once I got in the room I was fine. It is just getting over that initial fear. That feeling of uncomfortable that makes me want to stay in certain routine. That makes me want to stick to the ways "I have always done things."
   
5. Older members of my family also have this anxiety of anything different. It causes problems in later life. It keeps them stuck in destructive routines.
   
6. Now I am going to start working on that presentation.

Amazing Things

1. I woke up this morning in Blacksburg, Virginia at 5:00AM(EST). By 1:30PM(EST), I will be in San Antonio, Texas.
   
2. I am typing this post on the flight.
   
3. I could upload this post for $9.95.
   
4. Since 5:00AM, I have checked my Email four times, once at my apartment, once on the bus to the Roanoke airport, once at the Roanoke airport, and once again at the Atlanta airport.
   
5. I talked to both my dad and my wife while in Atlanta. My dad was in Crozet, Virginia. My wife was in San Antonio. The marginal cost of these calls was $0.
   
6. I just typed "The marginal cost of these were $0." The computer corrected me.
   
7. I am now publishing this post from our apartment in San Antonio. (By the way, I am in the shitter.)
   

   
    

Morning Thoughts

1. I like Google Chrome. But lately it has been giving me "unsafe site" messages for Google sites. This kind of crap makes me wonder.

2. I keep hearing commercials telling people not to say "this is so gay." I don't know what to think about this. Part of me thinks it is the evolution of language. Gay for me has come to mean feminine or girlish. I don't think it is as insulting as the commercials make it out to be, but other derogatory words have evolved out of the language. So maybe I'm wrong, and these commercials are part of our societal progression.

3. I have a lot of baseball cards at home. I have no idea what to do with them. Part of me wants to liquidate them. Another part of me wants to keep them. They will probably stay at my parents' house for another five or ten years until my mom makes me take them.

4. I just listened to Dan Patrick interview Peyton Manning. All I can say is "smooth." I have always liked "edge," but "edge" quickly turns into a disaster. "Edge" usually leads to inconsistency.

5. Anxiety, fear, excitement, worry are all complex emotions.

6. I don't like chicken. It used to be my favorite meat as a kid. (I think I used to like the skin more than anything else.) I fried some skinless chicken in olive oil, seasoned the hell out of it, mixed it with lima beans (which I thoroughly enjoy), and made a decent honey and Dijon mustard sauce. It wasn't bad, but I would rather have a dry hamburger.

I Have Always Enjoyed This Song

Talent And Honesty

My college head coach was a brutally honest evaluator of talent. He didn't sugarcoat things. If you were slow and your hips didn't bend, he told you. He didn't always tell you directly, but he told you.

I didn't realize this for a while. I and many others always thought of him as the master of the "backhanded slap" or the "backhanded compliment." Then he wrote a letter asking for donations to the school from football alumni. There are also a couple of videos out on the web of him talking about the current team. At first this letter and videos reiterated my opinion, but then I realized that in reality, he was just brutally honest. He had lost enough and been fired enough to know: Talent wins football games. Sugarcoated heart makes for good newspaper stories.

I have always thought that economics and good economists describe trade-offs. Every time one makes a decision he gives up something. This blog has trade-offs. This sentence has trade-offs. Giving a donation has trade-offs. What economics has taught me is that there are no free lunches, everything costs, every gain requires some sacrifice, some pain.

But economics doesn't say much about how to deal with the pain. Cost-benefit analysis assumes one knows the cost and the benefits. But in reality we're always guessing. It isn't about probability or expected values; it is guessing and facing the consequences of decisions, accepting pain, accepting brutal honesty concerning our lack of talent.

Sometimes I avoid decisions, because I am scared of the pain. I have never believed in "something beats nothing." There is value in waiting. There is value in agonizing. But economics says very little about when to make a decision or what to do when agonizing starts to adversely affect your life.

But knowing the trade-offs has to help, right?

I Wanted To Say Something About Vick

But Phil Taylor already did.

Vick is just another man captured by the vending machine honey bun. The two P's (power being the other one) has destroyed many men.

All I hope is that Vick doesn't screw up again.

Lighting Strikes

1. When there was lighting, we had to practice in the gym. At first we thought this was great. But we soon found that the conditioning was harder because of the stale air. We also found that hitting the floor because of tennis shoes or unexpected contact was painful and attention grabbing. If you get knocked down outside rarely would the whole team see it. Inside, everyone saw and laughed.

2. I just finished this recent book on business in Russia. I don't have the title or author with me, but it didn't provide any information you couldn't find on the Internet anyway. I took away that Russia provided opportunities for investors, but Russia is much more unpredictable than the U.S. I guess I knew that before I read the book. But it surprised me that the book and Russia in general had so much centralized power in both the public and private fronts. I don't imagine many American C.E.O.s being profiled like the Russians C.E.O.s were. It seemed like they were more important than the business. It was like they were proprietors not C.E.O.s of giant corporations. I know this happens in the U.S. too, and Russia's capitalism is still young. But it concerned me.

3. I am writing boring technical stuff. It is boring. I can say everything in tables, but people need paragraphs. And I am not saying much anyway. It is boring. But I have to do it. And the best way to do anything is to dive in, and let whatever happens happen.

The Vending Machine Honey Bun Revisited

Jason Whitlock reminds me of something I wrote.

Some Statements

1. My umbrella broke. This is very frustrating on rainy days especially when your rain coats are in Texas. I would buy an indestructible umbrella if it was less than $25.

2. It is still hot. But not as hot as it is in Texas.

3. My sophomore year in high school we went 9-1 and lost in the first round of the playoffs to a team quarterbacked by Kelley Washington. I didn't play much, and I don't remember much about two-a-days except it was hot. Not as hot as it is and was in Texas, but hot nevertheless.

4. I have always enjoyed Oingo Boingo's "Just Another Day" and "Wild Sex in the Working Class," but I have changed computers so much I can't find my MP3 copies. This is the digital age.

Another Hot Day

In the ninth grade, we were supposed to start two-a-days at 8:30AM and end at 3:30PM. Everyone was supposed to pack a lunch and get a air-conditioned break between 11:30AM-1:00PM. The first day all of the senior linemen were throwing up. It was hot at 10:30-11:00AM, and they had enough time in the morning to eat breakfast. You could see their cereal and milk coming back out. Five or six junior and senior linemen could not practice during the afternoon session. If you puked, the trainers made you sit out the next session.

The coach decided to make the sessions 6:00AM to 11:30AM with a fifteen minute break. This seemed to work better. All I really think it did was keep the linemen from eating breakfast.

Why Generations Progress Or Why My Son Will Have A Leg-up on Me

I started playing football in the 8th grade. My dad told me I'd better get in shape. So I started running. No, I started jogging. By the time the season started I was doing 2-2.5 miles over a hilly course every day.

After the first day of practice, I was dead. My recovery was better than most of my teammates, but I was exhausted. Those 2-2.5 miles did very little for me. My limits as an athlete were agility, speed, and flexibility. Jogging does nothing to improve these three things. As I progressed through high school, I started to do sprints and other things (including hydrating) to prepare. In college, they gave us a summer workout plan to prepare. But that first day when I was in the 8th grade was hell.

(Nothing really helps with two-a-days. You can't simulate five hours of activity on studded cleats in the August heat. The August heat was what sparked this post.)

The Time To Start Is Today

Some sports' thoughts:

1. NASCAR has to consider rain tires or something. Watkins Glen would have been a fun race to run in the rain. The best drivers and teams would have risen to the top. Running at Daytona or Talladega or Pocono would be tough, but too many races Monday at noon will kill the sport. Once the NFL starts, NASCAR doesn't have much pull. It has to take advantage of the opportunities it gets.

2. I don't give a damn about the Red Sox and Yankees. It is like Goliath versus Goliath. But after I accept that they both cannot lose, I enjoy watching them play each other occasionally. The Yankees have a hell of a lineup.

3. The Braves beat the Dodgers three out of four, and I don't care. They are a .500 team. Look at their statistics compared to the rest of the National League. I think they are 7 to 9 in every category.

I Don't Do This Often

I agree with Herbert's point that most men are misogynists. Most heterosexual men have a little "women hate" in them. Just like most heterosexual women have a little "men hate" in them. "Hate" is a bad thing.

I even agree that society and media perpetuates "women hate" probably a little more than they do "men hate." The reasons why and the innateness of these reasons would make a more interesting commentary. But to blame "women hate" for mass murders and use this as evidence for gun control is elephant shit. It is a complete misrepresentation of scope. The opportunity for mass murder is high. A man can go into a gym or school and kill females at any time. But more than 99% of the time, mass murder does not happen. It is tragic when it happens, and I am not trying to be callous to the situation or the victims. I am trying to be honest about the situation. We live in a relatively safe society even though there is a lot of "hate' in it.

Mass murderers are crazy people. They are psychotic. They have deep issues that they cannot solve by themselves. They need help. But they are crazy and evil and not normal. They are the extreme exception not the rule. If you want to argue for tighter gun control or a change of the way women are represented in the media, then do not use mass murderers as examples supporting your argument. It just doesn't make sense.

A Computer Crash (And A Post) That Means Nothing

A few weeks ago, my RAM went bad. I called Dell. I had two weeks left on my warranty. They would fix it.

But I was going to be gone for two and half weeks. I needed a computer to travel with. I went to Wal-Mart and bought a $300 netbook. I am happy with it, and it served me well on my travels.

My Dell was repaired ten days before I got back, and now it seems to be working well. I did not renew my warranty even though Dell's service (and FedEx) impressed me.

This post had no point but to acknowledge that it isn't the shocks that happen to us day-to-day. It is how we handle those shocks.

So I Went To This Conference...

I went to this presentation about a health experiment conducted with mothers and their children. The female researcher started to tear up when she started to talk about some of the inconsistent mothers she observed. She said something like "I don't know what these kids go through at home."

I have to say the moment was a little awkward. But it was the most memorable thing from the conference. I walked away knowing that the woman cared about her research and genuinely cared about people, and that is more than I can say about most of the other presentations.

David Allen Podcast

Allen speaking about previous commitments: "You can't walk away from this stuff by going numb to it."

This podcast was definitely worth listening to.

I enjoyed this one too.

Modern Agriculture

Tyler Cowen at MarginalRevolution.com linked to this essay. It is worth reading.

I was going to write an essay for a contest that asked (I am paraphrasing) what will U.S. agriculture look like and what does it look like now. I was going to build the essay around the view from the back parking lot of a church: On the right was a cow pasture with big electricity towers running through it. The pasture ended with a forest. On the left was a the preacher's garden, further left was his house and his neighborhood. Separating left and right was a creek, and in the distance was Interstate 81.

The idea was that agriculture is complicated and ever-changing, and agriculture tomorrow won't look like agriculture today or twenty years ago. It was and is this mix of conventional and new and organic and inorganic.

In other words, agriculture is kind of like everything else.

The (Un)Fairness Of It All

The problem with Keynesian stimulus is that it has to go to someone or some group. My Blazer blew up last year before the "Cash for Clunkers" program. I don't know anyone who works for GM or Chrysler. I am not planning on buying a house for a few years, and I have kept up the payments on my condo. I might get a job with the federal government, but I am worried their hiring will slow down before I can move to Washington.

Stimulus and government programs are always selective. Some people get selected. Some people don't.

Halfway Business Is Not Business At All Or Saving Money Might Actually Cost You Money

My aunt works in a small town Post Office. I live and frequent another small town Post Office. To deal with the recession and budget shortfalls, both of these offices have closed their customer service centers on Saturday. My aunt admits that Saturday is (was) by far their busiest day. The post office I frequent always seemed to be busiest on Saturday. Both were only opened for three to four hours on Saturday anyway. They usually had to stay open twenty minutes later than their closing time because of the line that "last minute" customers formed.

But that is not the whole story. The Offices will still have to be open on Saturday for people to put up and deliver mail. They way my aunt explained it to me, each office is only saving at most 5-6 man hours, probably less.

Virginia is also closing rest areas along its interstates. Some states have privatized-franchised rest areas. I know that those vending machines could make money. I know some people would spend a small fee to park and use a toilet. My travels have taught me that stopping at convenience stores and fast food places when you don't need gas is costly and bad for your health.

I have said this a million times, but economists have failed to teach anything. Maybe I am wrong and these closings will save money, and I appreciate that the people who made these decisions know their situations better than me. But you can't throw fixed and variable costs and revenue out the window when you're making decisions just because you're in the quasi-public realm.

Please Say It Ain't Rickey (But It Has To Be Right?)

Canseco has been proven right more times than he has been proven wrong when it comes to steroids.

I really think the whole thing is a non-issue, and I still will think Rickey is a hall of famer. Maybe it will open the door for McGwire and Bonds. Really I think the whole thing is just a funny story.

A Theory Of Life

Life is about dealing with bullshit. It is about dealing with the bad, the good, and the ugly.

To deal with the shit, people pick ex ante strategies like religion, philosophy, drugs, etc. During a life time, an individual will go through many different strategies as ex post outcomes will lead them to reevaluate their priors.

The thing is to not get too caught up in others' ex ante strategies. Every one has find their own way, and the bullshit will always be there. But if we stay focused, we can get through.

Three Books I Want To Read And The Dilemma Of Special Offers

1. Tyler Cowen's book came out Tuesday. The link offered a special offer that I did not take advantage of. I will be doing a significant amount of flying over the next few weeks. But I am too cheap to buy the hard cover edition. I got his Discover Your Inner Economist for $5, and it yielded significant consumer surplus. I am just not sure about paying full price, especially now that the special offer has passed.

2. Joe Posnanski is coming out with a book in September. I thought his Soul of Baseball was the most life-affirming book I have ever read. He is going to have some special offer from his blog too, but he hasn't decided exactly what to do yet.

3. Bill Simmons also has a new book coming out too. I don't think he will have any special offers, but I would like to read (skim) the book. Simmons has a passion for the NBA like Posnanski's passion for baseball.

My dilemma is as much as I enjoy reading good books, I don't enjoy buying new expensive books. I get a big kick out of going through the bargain bins and picking out books that might be good or classics that I should read one day. I probably read 1 out of 4 books I buy. I have many books in my library that have not been read.

I guess the point is I need to get a job and/or get busier, so I don't spend so much time thinking about what books to buy.

"Let's Go Racin' In The Streets"

I grew up with the guys at the grocery store. These guys were a collection of fuck-ups. With apologies to my dad (and he was from a different generation), you don't work at the grocery store past your twenty-fifth birthday unless you have a little fuck-up in you.

There was the guy who left but came back after his third DUI forced him to live with his parents. There was the guy who married a girl for six months leaving just enough time for her to ruin his credit and steal every dime he had. There was the guy who married a mail-order Russian bride getting a teenage son as part of the deal. There was the owner's son who could never be a functional addict like his father. There was the guy who was an heir to a 1000 acres who died way too young.

They were all good guys. But just like me, they were fuck-ups.

The thing about being a fuck-up is like any other addiction. You never get past it. No matter how many times you don't fuck-up, you know a fuck-up is coming. That knowing can eat you alive. It gnaws and chews at your stomach. It sucks at your soul. You never escape it. Most men learn how to put up a confident facade, but that knowing will always be there.

Maybe it is original sin, maybe it is the curse of knowledge, maybe it is me. But:

"Tonight, tonight the highway's bright
Out of our way, mister, you best keep
'Cause summer's here and the time is right
For racin' in the street."

The Power Of YouTube

I watched this video. I was impressed. This led me to watching/listening to everything else she had on YouTube.

But I haven't spent a dime on her. This worries the economist in me. Advertising dollars are only effective if people eventually buy what you're advertising. I am sure someone smarter than me will make this work, but I probably should enjoy it while I can.

Additional Thoughts From Last Post's Number 2

This Jeremy Mayfield thing is interesting from a legal-sports perspective.

I question a league's ability to take an individual player's livelihood away without due process. I would rather Mayfield's sponsors or team owners (if he tries to drive for another team) take it away. I have always felt this is the most effective form of punishment.

I also would rather see a criminal judge or jury determine if Mayfield is a meth (ab)user. If he has it in it his system, then he is probably still doing it or has done it repeatedly. I am sure a good detective could find the criminal evidence needed to convict. A criminal sentence is much harsher than any league suspension.

I also think the media mis-reported what the judge's ruling was. All he said was NASCAR could not suspend Mayfield while he was "appealing." He said nothing explicitly about Mayfield's guilt or innocence. The Stallworth case is another example of reporters not explaining law and rulings properly. From what I read, the reason he only got 30 days was because the prosecution didn't have much of a case showing Stallworth was negligent. If Stallworth wasn't drunk and stoned, he would have probably had no charges filed against him. (Admittedly, I might be wrong on my interpretation of the events.)

MLB implicitly suspended Barry Bonds last year. Jose Canseco said MLB did it to him too. I have a feeling Vick and Pac-Man are going to go through the same thing. These implicit suspensions because no one is willing-to-pay (put up with your shit) are much more effective and hold more deterring power.

Morning Reads

1. GGM sent me this about my parents' Representative. I took offense to this sentence: "The rest wouldn't take the political risk of voting for even a fairly weak climate bill that doesn't even come close to doing what science demands." You have to read the article and link within the article to get what I saw as the contradiction. It keeps coming back to what I've been trying to get at in these last few posts. Politics and life is a big debate. What is important is the debate not one particular point of view. David Brooks also addresses this and larger issues this morning.

2. I am not a lawyer or a legal scholar. But I don't know what to think of Madoff getting 150 years. I would rather him be making as much money as he can for the rest of life to pay off as much as he can of the civil suits. The line between criminality and civility seems to be really blurry, and the punishment seems to not fit the crime. Not to beat a dead horse, but how many dogs could Vick's salary have saved if was allowed to continue playing in the NFL? Putting a guy in jail for 150 years isn't going to create wealth or retribution for any of his victims.

3. I don't discuss the Iraq war much. Mostly because I don't know exactly what I think of it. But the following quote from this article sums how complex the situation is:

“Right now we are balanced on a knife’s edge,” said Hamid Majeed, a Sunni speaking near the rubble of a Shiite mosque that was blown up in 2006. “We do not like the Americans, but we also thank God when we see them with the Iraqi Army, because we know we can trust them more than the government forces.”

This editorial also explains some of the complexities.

We All Knew They Couldn't Hold It

I guess it goes back to: "Root for good stories. Bet on talent."

I have always wondered what Mike Vick could do if he was a soccer player (raised playing soccer to get the foot-eye coordination). He would be competitive with these Brazilian guys, wouldn't he?

For some odd reason, I would like to find out the answer.

Bad Science Or Bad Research II

From the New York Times

I have always been of the opinion that many of the most important discoveries come when you are looking for an answer to a question but then find an answer to another more important question. The question becomes can a grant-making process be developed that puts people in position to answer important questions without quelling their creativity and their ability to answer other questions that were not in their original grant proposal? I guess it comes back to the ex ante versus ex post thing. Research involves so much ex ante uncertainty but also requires so much ex ante funding. Ex post, research results are "taken care" of by the market. But ex ante expectations rarely equal ex post returns, as evidenced by my dissertation which I am going to start working on right now.

Hopefully Last Post Of The Day

When I get bored, I read my blog. This serves a few purposes:

1. I recognize that I have experienced little growth. Many personal posts are about the same issues over and over. I find this both depressing and encouraging.
2. I realize I am not that bad. I have a few readable ideas. I write okay. I build confidence.
3. I realize that the blog represents recorded practice. Practice can be a good thing.

Number 2 is the most important function of reading your own blog.

Bad Science Or Bad Research

I was going to compare the batting statistics of Red Sox and the Braves. My point was that the Braves have a similar batting average to the Red Sox, a better ERA, but their OBP and OPS was much lower. Therefore they score a lot fewer runs and win fewer games.

This is all true, but it is no where near as pronounced as I thought. (This page's team statistics started my thought pattern. This page's more detailed statistics ended my thought pattern.)

So I wasn't going "publish" anything. The data didn't exactly fit my theory, so I was just going to keep it to myself. And really, in the middle of a season even if my theory was true, it has very little prescriptive value. What are the controllable variables in a Major League baseball player? Terry Pendelton isn't able to get Francoeur to walk more (take more pitches) especially mid-season. I somewhat doubt if you can get many Major League batters to change their approach in the middle of their careers. My theory is like saying "The sky is blue." Who gives a shit?

I am afraid that is much research. The Kevin Murphy interview I linked to in the last post discusses some of these problems as related to health care.

Unexpected Things I Have Read This Morning

1. Farrah Fawcett and Ayn Rand were somewhat friends. Rand was a complex character.

2. Kevin Murphy and the Chicago economists do have a wide breadth.

(These first two links came from MarginalRevolution.com.)

3. The New York Times is beating this Sanford thing to death. I guess they did the same with Spitzer. I read a few commentaries on the hypocrisy of the "right." But I didn't see any commentaries about: "This is why we can't give any person too much power. This is why well-intentioned government is corrupted by individual politicians. This is why we have to be careful about government. It isn't the affair as much as it is the lying and mis-spending of tax-payer dollars in a really poor state. Power can corrupt anyone, so we have to be careful." The New York Times coverage isn't unexpected, but the number of articles on a South Carolina governor surprised me.

4. Milton Bradley is crazy as hell. Lou Pinella isn't going to take it anymore. This isn't unexpected, but I have never liked the Cubs.

5. The Braves suck. This certainly isn't surprising. All I can say is I would rather have Barry Bonds in the outfield than Anderson or Francoeur. I actually think you could put McClouth in left-center and another young-fast guy in right-center and have Bonds be a de facto DH and have a better chance at winning. The lack of offense is going to kill Jurrjens and the other young pitchers. Read Pat Jordan's A False Spring to learn about what confidence means to young pitchers.

751st Post Or Late Afternoon Thoughts

1. Michael Jackson was a significant part of my childhood. There are only so many artists I can say that about. I wore out my Bad cassette tape. He was a creative genius. There are only so many people you can say that about.

2. I am listening to the Cubs play the White Sox. Jermaine Dye just hit a home run. Jermaine Dye used to play for the Braves.

3. Chris Tucker was in the Rush Hours. Chris Rock was in Lethal Weapon 4. I get these confused, and I have to remind myself.

4. "If you want to make the world a better place, take a look at yourself and make a change."

5. The fact that YouTube made it through the day without crashing is a credit to human ingenuity.

6. I wish I could moonwalk. I think if I could moonwalk or dance in general, I would be a better researcher.

7. Ron Santo just forgot that he was in an American League ballpark and talked about "pitcher coming up next." At least he admitted his mistake in the next half-inning.

Teaching Or The Value Of Doing Something Different

I sat through a lesson last night from an old school teacher. It was straightforward. He was somewhat prepared. The message was concise and hammered home.

All I wanted was something different. I wanted a tangential story, a little fire, some thing else.

One of the big questions in life is when to switch? When to change? When to try something different? You see it in sports. You see it in policy. You see it every day at an individual level.

So here is another exam question:

A professor has taught a class for 20 years. He has numerous exam questions, homework problems, assignments, PowerPoint slides etc. etc saved up. He gets average to above average reviews every year. He cares about teaching, but it is not his main source of income. He has some radical ideas that could make his class better or his class worse. These ideas would take time to develop but might also save him time in the future. What does he do?

A Post That Is A Distraction But Hopefully A Good Distraction

The Marginal Revolution blogosphere has started discussing median voter theory. Here is a link to a summary post.

I always thought the median voter theory was interesting didactically. It teaches students about how democratic elections work and could work. It also explains national politicians, especially presidential candidates. But like most economic theories, I don't think it is an empirical theory. It is based on unmeasurable ever-changing (and indifferent) preferences.

I am not responding to the exact arguments made in Yglesia's post, and I don't think Cowen says much. The problem with economists is that they have things to say about the media, elections, health care, and many other things, but they don't have answers. But writing and media and being heard has become more and more about answers. Health care, GM and Chrysler, and many other issues are clusterfucks. There are no "easy" answers. I would argue that government intervention isn't the best or even a good answer, but it would just be an argument, just rhetoric.

The blogosphere and decentralized media is a good way to argue. The U.S.' three branches, checks and balances system is a good way to argue. The important thing is for the system to allow for arguments. The system becomes more important than answers. Economists need to do a better job of explicitly recognizing this in their work.

If I ever get my shit straight, my economist license, and a job that allows me to do things I want, I will study the contextual nature of preferences and emphasize systems, but for now, I'd better get back to my dissertation.

Some Things

1. Talent usually trumps "heart" and good stories. Root for "heart" and good stories, bet on talent.

2. No matter what one has to do, he has to get started. Coffee, tea, Red Bull, whatever it takes.

3. I want to do a series called "The Economics of..." I want to start with the "The Economics of Marriage Ceremonies." My sister married Saturday. As I was eating the Prime Rib, I could dream of my measly inheritance going down the shitter.

A Quick Healthcare Thought

One of the most discouraging things I have ever seen is my grandfather (and my grandmother also) growing old, getting sick and tired, and my parents and aunts and uncles ability and inability to take care of them. My grandfather turned (horrible word) from this virile "stormed the beaches at Normandy in '44 and could do it still in '94" to a man who could not and did not want to walk. I can't say he "gave up," but I can say that towards the end, he needed to be treated like a child.

This was the problem my parents and aunts and uncles faced. Here was a man who could not make decisions for himself anymore. A man who needed pushing to get better and survive. They could never fully accept the new parental role that they had inherited. They still wanted to treat him like an adult, but he wasn't acting like an adult. The doctors didn't help. Until the end, they kept asking him questions about decisions he couldn't really make.

The whole situation was sad. Because part of the reason he was acting like a child was because his body was breaking, he was confined to bed, and I am sure he felt like a child but with the mind and experience of an adult.

Most of the health care policy proposals I see are based on the idea that decisions need to be taken away from people like my grandfather and my parents and given to some government or insurance authority. My experience suggests this might be a good thing. It might make my life easier when my parents get old.

But it also scares me. Because I see too many fine lines, and I don't think the essential problems are being addressed. The problem is information and fixed costs. I have addressed these issues in the past, here and here.

I guess what I am saying is that as sad and discouraging as my grandfather's situation was, I don't know if I would have had it any other way.

One Could Waste A Day On YouTube Or Watching TV But There Are Only So Many Days

The last few months I have been thinking a lot about my career, about "what I want to be when I grow up." My general conclusion is that I have the question all wrong. The right question is what should I be doing right now. Of course, the "right nows" need purpose if I want to do anything constructive, but the idea is that careers more times than not just happen. There are some people who plan on being doctors or teachers from the time they enter grade school, and some of them get there. But most people are like me and don't have the attention span.

Just like I don't have the attention span to properly finish this post.

Some Things

1. I am getting into this hockey game. I am rooting for Detroit. I don't know why. My future brother-in-law is from Pittsburgh. I like the Pistons. Here is an idea from an announcer that you don't hear much, "Some times the hockey gods aren't with you." I always recognized that some times it is better to be lucky than talented. But most NBA and NFL announcers rarely admit this fact.

2. I walked from the office to my apartment. It took me a little less than an hour. It was good exercise, but I don't know if I will keep it up.

3. I switched over to C-SPAN from the hockey game. I will more than likely never buy an American vehicle. I don't know how I feel about this yet. But I don't think I will lose any sleep.

4. Lebron versus the Lakers would have a lot more fun than what we have now.

The Braves

I saw the Braves play the Brewers on Saturday. It was two of the worse offensive teams I have ever seen. The stadium wasn't very full, and most of the tickets were sold at very low prices.

I will concentrate on the Braves. Besides Chipper Jones (OPS+=157), Brian McCann (OPS+=147) and some times Yunel Escobar (OPS+=110), they have no offense. McClouth will eventually help, but he is not enough. They have a back-up catcher and some back-up outfielders hitting the ball and getting on base, and they need to find ways to get these guys on the field. But they have very little offense.

Their overall offense strategy is completely opposite of the established "Moneyball" norms of "getting on base," "taking pitches," and "power is important." Some of this is the Braves and Bobby Cox have had some success with "pitching, defense, singles and sacrifices." Some of it is arrogance. Some of it is the parity of professional sports. The fact that the Braves can be a .500 team and kind of (but not really) in the NL East race helps to keep the few fans still interested in the Braves buying tickets (and memorabilia).

The points of this post are the following:

1. Many successful people base their lives on routine.

2. Change is hard especially when you're older.

3. It is hard to be above average for any extended period of time.

You Do

They say beauty is defined by them

They say they have answers

To the questions everyone asks

They tell you about coffee

And tea

Magnificent tea

And you want them so bad

But not at all 

At the same time

They don't care 

What you want

They don't care about you

Or your questions

And you think of your poor dad

Who is not poor at all

He don't drink coffee

And those limey bastards 

Used to stop the war to drink tea

But they don't care about your dad

Or limey bastards

Or war

You look in the mirror

You see what you see

Eyes that have seen too much

But not enough

A face worn

But still young

And you gird your strength

And grit your teeth

And you struggle

Because they don't have to care

But you do

Another Lebron Post

I just heard these lyrics:

"I'm a goddam sore loser."

And that is okay.   If you want to shake people's hands and talk to the media after losses, then you are not really competitive.  You do it, because everyone thinks you should do it.  Not because you want to.  

It is time for Lebron to start voicing what he really wants and stop worrying about everyone else. And Lebron wants an NBA title.  

Danny Ferry better get out of his way.   

Maybe I Was Wrong

Lebron might be a Romantic figure.  We might be "witnessing" the greatest.

But if he doesn't win, I will be disappointed.  There are only so many "next years."  He is one injury away from irrelevancy.  

Depressing

I thought Lebron could be a great Romantic figure.  I thought he could single-handily slay the mediocrity of the NBA.  For some reason, I really wanted to see this.  I didn't feel like I was old enough to appreciate Jordan's reign.  I wanted to see the "greatest."

But I will not see it this year.  And I am disappointed.   

The Value Of A Bottle Cap Or An Exam Question

Coke offers rewards if you have the patience to enter their bottle cap codes on the Internet.  Eight bottle caps lead to a free 20oz drink.  A 20oz drink costs $1.49 at the campus store.  It is less at other places.  Coke seems to be doing away with 20oz bottles in favor of half-liter bottles.  Many people recycle their bottles with the caps left on them.  I recover these caps from the recycling bins.  This costs me very little except for funny looks from passer-bys.  I readily admit I drink too much soda.  It is bad for my acid reflux.  I prefer Diet Pepsi to Coke Zero or Diet Coke.  I usually buy store brand soda (Big K).  There are other rewards (offers) from Coke for bottle cap points, but I find these unattainable and overpriced.  

What is the value of a Coke bottle cap?

    

NBA Morning Thoughts And Another Stupid Thing I Have Done Or Doing A Good Thing The Wrong Way

1.  I really want to get into the NBA playoffs.  The Lakers are my villains.  I want Cleveland to win.  I thought and still think that Houston doesn't have a chance without Yao.  Dallas is tragic.  Denver is a story.  The Magic, Celtics, and Hawks just aren't that good.  If everything goes as planned and there is a Cavs-Lakers final , I will stay interested.  If not, I will pay attention but not care.

2.  I grew up on the Bad Boy Pistons.  Rest in peace Chuck Daly.        

3.  I went home Saturday.  The grass was long.  My dad had to work Sunday.  I got on the riding mower and started to cut.  I was being a good son.  I was bringing up mud, and the other half of the grass wasn't trimmed.  I blamed it on the grass being wet.  The tires were pushing the grass down, and since the grass was wet, it didn't have resiliency.  I finish.  I park the mower.  The grass looks horrible.  When I was a kid, it wouldn't have been acceptable to my dad or myself.  Now it was cut.  And that was good enough.  My dad gets home.  "Why is this so uneven?"  He looks at the mower, and it has a flat tire.  Yes, I mowed the lawn with a flat tire.  We pumped up the tire, and my dad went back over the lawn as I push mowed some places.  It still looks horrible, and I am worried about some spots that were cut too low.  I might have brought my parents neighborhood shame.  But it is cut, and I am back in Blacksburg.       

Sunday Afternoon Or Stupid Things I Have Done

1.  I listened to the Braves beat the Phillies.  The Braves are a .500 team.  And a lucky .500 team has a chance.  All I need a chance is to keep my interest.

2.  I am listening to the Yankees beat the Orioles.  I don't like the Yankees.  I don't really care about the Orioles.  I just find the Yankee situation entertaining  The Braves are a .500 team.  At least they don't spend a billion dollars on players and a new stadium to be a .500 team.  

3.  From Ayn Rand's Foreword to We The Living: "Writers are made, not born.  To be exact, writers are self-made."  I find this encouraging.

4.  I did a little Spring cleaning yesterday.  I changed the bed and put on a Summer blanket.  I left the windows cracked last night.  I woke up shivering this morning.

5.  I have shoes that have to be fifteen years old.  They were one of the first pairs I bought when my feet stopped growing.   I still wear them.  There is a crack in the sole.  When it is rains for 40 days and 40 nights, one should not wear fifteen year old shoes with a crack in the sole.

6.  I've been trying to do too much and not getting anything done.  It is time to rectify this.

    

       

You Have To Believe

The belief that you have something relevant to say has to supersede the fear that the people who hear won't care.  

Depression is letting the fear of people not caring get in the way of the belief that you have something relevant to say.  

It really doesn't matter what is.  All that matters is that you believe, and you don't let anyone take that belief away from you.    

Some More Things

1.  I think it is time to close this school for good.

2.  Twitter.  I don't know what to think about it.

3.  I thumb downed Coldplay today.  I had to do it.

4.  Three things are better than none.  I guess.     

Some Things To (Hopefully) Get Me Started

1.  I can't decide what makes you stupider:  

1.  Sports Talk Radio  

2.  Country Music Radio Stations  

3.  Reality TV Shows

2.  Getting started is imperative to finishing anything.  

3.  I slow-cooked this Boston Butt.  I tried to mimic North Carolina Barbecue.  But I didn't have the ingredients.  I didn't have the energy and time to do it right.  So my finished product wasn't great.  It was (barely) edible, but it wasn't great.   There is a lesson here.  But I can't determine what exactly the lesson means.  Maybe the lesson is that the Boston Butt is really insignificant in the grand scheme.

4.  This A-Rod book could be an interesting character study if Pat Jordan did it.  I am not old-school, but there seems to be too much inuendo and unnamed sources in Roberts' work.  Pat Jordan would have followed A-Rod around for a week or six months and captured his ego-mania with specific quotes and stories.  

5.  This one is complicated, so bear with me.  I wonder when some one will start a (Swine) Flu research foundation.  I have always had an issue with people who have been directly affected by a disease or situation starting foundations and raising money for these or other related foundations.  Michael J. Fox comes to mind.  He is a good guy and has done a lot of good things.  But if he started raising money for heart disease or cancer or AIDS, I would have more respect for him.  "I have Parkinson's disease, but AIDS affects a lot more people and is more devastating."  The idea being that it would be less self-serving more utilitarian and encourage cynical (people who believe in incentive-theory) people like myself.  The point here is that there are a lot of good causes and flu research is one of them, but the relative importance of these is very subjective.    

A Sentence I Read This Morning

"The core function of a university is to educate students."

I am not going to cite the sentence. Of course it is from an academic article. I have written worse sentences, but this one caught my eye this morning.

Fiber Plus Bars

I am sitting in my communal office. I have been trying to increase my fiber intake. I get up to correct my laptop stand. I faintly fart. Thankfully I didn't shit myself. And like the soldier I am, I went about my business like nothing happened.

Do I Go To The Spring Game Or Not?

There is no such thing as Hokie Nation or Red Sox Nation or Yankee Nation.  They don't exist.  They are fictional constructs.  Fictional constructs that help the media describe events.  "Nation" is just a word to generalize, to aggregate, to demonize, to patriotize.

But we want "nations."  We want the order, the identity, the rules, the standards that "nations" give us.  Most people run into problems when they lose their identity, when they lose their tribe, when they lose their "nation".  They search for something, and they usually end up lost, at least for a time.  

There is something important, something significant, something essential to having an identity.  I don't know if that identify has to come from a "nation."  But it has to come from somewhere.       

Free Writing Friday Afternoon

You have to have a vision before it can be implemented.

You have to have help to implement anything.

The guy in the office beside me was a good athlete, a good catcher. I am sure he could throw a lot of people out. I was just learning how to hit when I stopped playing ball. He couldn't throw anyone out anymore. And I can't hit anymore.

Struggle is part of life and not necessarily a bad thing.

You'd better stand for something or you will fall for anything.

Spring games are what they are. Exhibitions.

Some times you have to get excited about something. As GGM says, "You have to blow out the pipes." I haven't gotten really angry lately. Anger isn't always a bad thing.

Over and out, good buddy.

Some Things

1.  I am really digging Google's Chrome.  It reminds of Opera but seems more stable.

2.  I have been listening to too much Pandora.  I cannot make a decision on Coldplay.  Most of the time I just don't feel them, but they keep popping up and I don't ban them from my playlist.

3.  I started a post on the foolishness of buying a house.  The idea was that I (and most people) place value on things that does not hold value for other people.  The house I grew up in is worth much more to me and my parents than anyone else.  Cars are the same way.  In other words, houses are not investments unless you treat them like an investment.  (I was going to use this logic as support for my new assessment system.)  I was going to relate this to my personal struggles.  Maybe I am not valuing the right things.  But I didn't finish the post.

4.  Coldplay came on Pandora again.  I skipped the song but did not ban them.  

5.  I haven't called my shot put buddy.  I will soon.  I hope.

6.  I might make Chrome my default browser today.

7.  The song from Pandora I am listening to now isn't very good either.  But it is better than Sports Radio.  

8.  My next research project is going to be on what kills more brain cells: sports talk radio or country music stations.  Every now and then I like listening, but I never feel that good afterwards.  It always seems like I am listening to avoid thinking. 

I Once Knew This Guy

He was one of the best athletes I ever met. He could dunk a basketball. He could bench 365 pounds without trying. He almost qualified for nationals in the shot-put. He was a great friend.

He saw athletics as this thing where if you worked hard, good things would come to you. I saw academics as this thing where if you worked hard, good things would come to you. We would argue about this all of the time, accusing the other of being lazy. I would say he could be a better student. He was a great friend.

He would say I could be a better athlete. We used to play basketball with this freshman. We screwed with that freshman so much he wanted to cry. He was a great friend.

I went to graduate school. I don't think he ever graduated. He was a great friend.

We've talked once or twice in the last six years. Yesterday, he found me, sent me his numbers, and asked me to call him. He was a great friend.

I can't do it. I don't want to do it. I can't face calling him and rehashing my last few years. I am not that unhappy. I just don't want to talk right now. I just don't want revisit the past or catch up. I want to concentrate on the future. I want to move forward. I want to be better than I am right now. But I will eventually call. He was a great friend.

Acid Reflux, Emergency Rooms, And Habits

A month ago I spent an afternoon in a Richmond (VCU) Emergency Room. As I had done three times in the previous month, I got something stuck in my throat. My acid reflux had inflamed my throat. I forgot to thoroughly chew a piece of apple, and I choked. I tried to throw it up for three hours. I tried to relax. But it just stayed there. I was getting dehydrated. I had a hour and half commute home. I was making a fool of myself. I had to do something. The ladies in the office were concerned. The emergency room was two blocks away. So I went.

Once I "sign in" to the emergency room, I swallow the apple to a point where I am not regurgitating, and I can swallow water. I keep asking if I should leave, because there are some really sick people there. The nurses, all say "stay." I am in an emergency room with a number of sick prisoners from local jails, correction officers assigned to watch them, and state troopers investigating traumatic accidents. The orderlies and maintenance workers are discussing their sexual exploits and what they would like to do with some of the student nurses. I do not want to "stay." But I do, and it will cost me a few hundred dollars.

Earlier in the day I drank black coffee from Starbucks. This has always had a detrimental effect on my acid reflux. My stress level was high. This has always had a detrimental effect on my acid reflux. I had choked three times in the previous month. I started taking Prilosec again, but it clearly wasn't solving the problem. It was just helping mask the symptoms and the real causes. It was just helping maintain my bad habits of black coffee and stress.

Most of life is habit. If you step back and evaluate most of your daily decisions, they involve some type of "rule of thumb," some type of decision rule based on experience and past information. Black coffee wakes me up. Writing this blog makes me feel better and helps me avoid other things I have to do.

Some bad habits are necessary. But a successful life involves overcoming bad habits and replacing them with less bad habits. This is what I am trying to do, and that has to be good enough.

An Idea I Almost Forgot

In a nearby community, the county increased property value assessments on a number of houses. As expected during these times, this caused an outrage with some of the owners. "It just doesn't make any sense. The housing market is bottomed out, and "they" increased my taxes."

My libertarian side says this situation is purely government failure. There shouldn't be property taxes and government. This is just another example of government coercing people.

My realistic side says we have to pay for some local quasi-public goods and services. Property taxes meet the wherewithal principle. There could be a worse way, and nothing is changing soon.

My economist side says the problem is valuation. These assessments are just made-up. I have seen a lot of economic valuation models, and they all have flaws. (They are all bullshit.) So here is what I think, if the county assesses a house at $X, they should have to be willing and able to buy the house at $X. If the owner thinks his house is assessed at too high of a value, he can sell it to the taxing authority. And the taxing authority would have to buy it or reassess. People could truly "vote with their feet" by moving in and out of communities.

This idea is certainly not new. But I was reminded of it when I reading this about changing the rules in baseball and football. The problem with changing rules is not rational benefits and costs, but something more visceral. Changing rules causes emotional responses, causes a fundamentally different way of viewing things. My first reaction to Posnanski's post was "sometimes you just have to win." Kneeling and intentional walks are about winning. But this isn't a rational response. It is just how I view the world. No rationale is going change my mind.

It is hard to change rules. And maybe that is a good thing. And maybe it isn't. But I certainly don't want to eliminate the intentional walk or the ability to kneel down to end football games.

But I do want to change the way counties assess property values.

(Yeah, Posnanski says the same thing except better, but I had to try.)

Charles Bukowksi Quote Of The Day

From Ham on Rye pg. 194:

"And yet I knew that what I saw wasn't as simple and good as it appeared. There was a price to be paid for it all, a general falsity, that could be easily believed, and could be the first step down a dead-end street. The band began to play again and the boys and girls began to dance again and the lights revolved overhead throwing shades of gold, then red, then blue, then green, then gold again on the couples. As I watched them I said to myself, someday my dance will begin. When that day comes I will have something that they don't have.

But then it got to be too much for me."

Opening Day

I hear these commentators talk about how every baseball fan has hope for their team this week. Every team has a chance to win the pennant. Every team has a chance to be special.

I should feel this way about the Braves, especially after last night, but I don't. They don't have the bats to win. Their pitching is old, injury-prone, and inconsistent. They might stay close, but the cream (the Mets and the Phillies and even the Marlins) will rise to the top before the year is done.

But it is opening day and Spring is officially here, so I am going forget the Braves and take full advantage of my MLB.com radio subscription.

"Make It Up. Make It Happen."*

I won my "Bracket Challenge." Now I have to get the organizer to pay out. This might be difficult. This is another problem I don't necessarily need. It is another thing to pass the time.

I had Michigan State losing in the first round. I am ranked 60,537 in Facebook. So either I was lucky or my competitors were bad.

But some times, you just have to win.

*This is in David Allen's Getting Things Done. I know he wasn't the first to write it, but I am too lazy to look up the reference.

What I Am Doing Or What I Have To Do Or What I Should Be Doing...

Research is all about producing information and selling the information you produce. The best researchers sell themselves with their information. Most research takes some leap of faith. People cannot have faith in research or information. They can only have faith in people.

My dad knows how to sell. No, my dad has learned how to sell. He tries. He fails. He takes calculated risks, not probabilistically conceived but based on instinct and experience. He sells his information and himself very well.

It is time for me to start following his example.

A Liberal Arts Education

I went to this conference in Portland, Oregon. When I got off the plane, my surgically repaired leg hurt. It rained most of the time I was there. But I enjoyed the city.

It was an interdisciplinary conference. I am eating breakfast with an entomologist, a weed scientist, a computer scientist and an ecologist. Because of my liberal arts education, I could keep up with the conversations. My Eastern European colleague could not. The ecologist resorted to drawing pictures and giving a Biology 101 lesson. Some of this was due to English. But most of it was because the colleague had never had to take a biology or ecology class.

Some times knowing a bunch of useless crap is helpful, but on average, I can't tell if it is worth it.

The Economics Of Blogging

I am becoming an adult. I have adult responsibilities. I have "things to do." I even have things "I have to do." Blogging is probably not important, but it is therapeutic. Therapy is some times needed.

Some thoughts from the previous month:

1. I like (respect) curious people. It bothers me that our health care economists have not asked me how or why I lost weight. They seem much more concerned with averages and abstractions while I am curious about individuals and reality. I admit there are benefits and costs to curiosity, but I prefer curious people.

2. In relation to number one, most people (including researchers) are zombies. They only come alive with caffeine or some external force. Finding a person who is really alive all the time is rare. Most people live separate lives. My dad loved running the concession stand for the local junior baseball league. Then it was the video store. The thing that worries me is that neither he or my uncles have been able to sustain that passion.

3. If North Carolina wins Saturday, I win my bracket pool. I was last before the Sweet Sixteen. I chose my teams based on random numbers. I had seven out of eight in the Elite Eight. It really is just a crap shoot.

Snapshots

My fiance enjoys taking pictures. She loves taking pictures. She is Asian, and the cultural stereotype about Asians and pictures is definitely true. She wants a visual record of every occasion. She wants documentation that we were there, we were together, and we were smiling.

I was discussing my research with this experienced agricultural statistician. I was complaining that my correlations suggested that agriculture was very location specific. Drawing conclusions about national agriculture was very circumspect. Now this is obvious to anyone who knows anything about agriculture, but as a researcher, I want something not so obvious.

He calmed me by saying that all we can do is take snapshots. We focus on what we want to focus on, get the results we get, and move on to the next project. We just take snapshots and the series of snapshots tell us more of the story than any single snapshot.

This snapshop philosophy is very unsatisfactory, because it leaves us always chasing something. It makes criticism of our work fair.

But it is a whole lot like the way one has to live life. One has to make decisions on the information he has available at any given time and move forward from there. It is never full information. It is just what is available at that time.

One can spend a life worrying what decision to make and never make a decision. This paralysis should be the worry.

Chugging The Mountain Dew, Sucking It Up, And Moving Forward

I've been working in Richmond for the last couple of weeks. I get up at 5:00AM. I leave at 6:00AM. I stop by Starbucks to check my Email. I get to the office and my unconnected desktop at 8:00AM. (This morning I can't come into 11:00AM, but I still got up at 5:00AM). I try to leave the office by 3:30PM or 4:00PM to beat rush hour.

In some ways, I hate it. Some of this hate is specifically related to what I am doing. I really doubt the power of statistics when it comes to making big complicated dynamic decisions. I might get into more details later, but let's leave it at that for the time being.

In other ways, I like the routine of it all. I go home and play my parents' Wii. I really enjoy tennis, bowling and Wii Fit. I really like telling everyone that I have been up at 5:00AM for ten straight days. I like watching the sun rise on my commute in, and the sun starting to set on my commute home.

But the other day, at about 10:30AM, I almost lost it. The uncertainties of my life, of these times really got to me. I was going to leave and not come back. I was ready to say "fuck it" and start all over. I was ready to push reset on my life, tell my Dad it was time to open the restaurant/pool room/coffee shop/grocery store/convenience store he has always talked about. It was time to make my own luck. It was time to make myself a real man, not an graduate student, not an economic researcher.

I walked to the break room, shotgunned a can of Mountain Dew in 45 seconds, took a deep breath, and went back to my desk.

My time will come.

My Day

1. I forgot my belt. This was a fireable offense at the grocery store. I kept my shirt-tail untucked most of the day. This looks sloppy. Tucking in without a belt looks like crap.

2. I was supposed to have a meeting at 9:00AM. The professor didn't show up. This did not help my day. It kind of killed my productivity. Of course, the productivity reduction is my fault, but this is what I was getting at in number 4 of this post.

3. I had a sinus drop. Ginger ale helped. Some cookies calmed the stomach down, but sinus drops are not fun.

4. I am upgrading Vista. "This could take up to several hours."

"Wild At Heart" Or Another Therapeutic Dump

I am who I fucking am.

If all you want is to spread your ideas but refuse to write, who are you?

If all you want is to share your passion but refuse to commit, who are you?

If all you want is to drink but refuse to swallow, who are you?

If all you want is to change but refuse to try, who are you?

If all you want is confidence but refuse to be proud, who are you?

If all you want is independence but refuse to separate, who are you?

If all you want is acceptance but refuse to congratulate, who are you?

If all you want is life but refuse to live, who are you?

At the end of the day, you must be who you fucking are, even if it hurts, even if it is tough, even if it makes you cry.

I am who I am.

Football And Baseball

There is something different about football players. Basketball players don't have it. Baseball players certainly don't have it. I guess it is a kind of humilty born in the trenches, born in the fact that players suffer through two-a-days, suffer through constant bruises and collisions.

Football players have a respect. A friend told me that football teaches: "If you attack something like a crazy man, there's no time to worry and it's so much fun." But the craziness is tempered by the humilty that comes with getting knocked on your ass, by the humility that you need teammates to be successful. A quarterback without a line or recievers or running backs might show flashes, but he'll never win.

Yeah, there are great players, special players who deserve a degree of cockiness. But no fan can really see your face when you're on the field. I am not saying there aren't assholes who play football, but even T.O. cried for Tony Romo once. And the majority of players know they are one unlucky injury away from being released or not walking right again.

I think this is why nobody really cares about steroids in the NFL. I don't know A-Rod. I never will. I really don't care what he took. But I don't like him that much. He just doesn't seem humble. Neither does Roger Clemens. Neither did most of the baseball players I knew.

My dad always said that some guys just needed their ass kicked. To me, A-Rod just needs his ass kicked once or twice.

Hopefully A Therapeutic Dump

1. I am sitting here waiting to get my oil changed. On CNN, the "media" and the President are railing against bonuses and record profits. All I can think is "Damn, I wish I was getting these bonuses or had invested in these companies." We live in "interesting times." And I am just a guy trying to find my way and not doing a good job at it.

2. I have always prided myself on knowing when to "get out," knowing when my welcome was worn out and it was time to go. But on Monday night, I visited this newlywed couple. I was talking to the wife about something pointless. It was a conversation that should have lasted fifteen minutes. But I kept talking and the husband came out, and I made up something about my future. I tried to converse about things I knew nothing about that the husband did. And an hour and fifteen minutes later, I finally remembered that this was a newlywed couple who wanted to do what newlyweds do. I blame some of this on being in a long-distance relationship and overstaying my welcome at graduate school which means many of my friends have moved on with their life. But the event has made me introspective.

3. On a similar note, I saw one of my old high school coaches last night. He only coached me my junior year, but he knew my dad who did stats for him for a few years. I kind-of introduced myself, but he couldn't remember me and was going to the basketball game. It was another one of these moments where I should have just gotten away, but I lingered two extra minutes. Again the event made me introspective. It has been eleven years since my junior year of high school.

4. The problem with older people, many who are in authority, is they are not very organized and not willing to change. This means that younger people get frustrated with them and also don't get better organizing skills. I am having a hard time creating my "Getting Things Done" system. Most of this is my fault, but there are some open loops caused by people I am working with. But most of it is my fault.

How Do We See Ourselves?

David Brooks challenges Rand. (I have a feeling that Randites or Randians or Objectivists or individualists would say Brooks' mixed commitment to the collective represents the main problem with modern American conservatism.) You can read Ryne Sandberg's comments and say "What a great and selfless man " or you can say "What a selfish, self-important, pious prick--NAZI soldiers did what they were "supposed to" too." Or you can feel and say something in-between.

No matter what, I still don't like the Cubs.

Some Things From 2003 Or Man, I Used To Have A Different Side Or James Taylor's "Fire And Rain" Pulled Me From The Ashes

The bathroom wall said "Wake me up inside." All I could say was "No." Why must I hate the rules that we must abide?

It isn't what you used to be or even who you are--it only matters who you're expected to be.
(I would change "who you're expected to be" now. I don't know what to change it to, but I would change it.)

You know: I guess a lesbian can't get AIDS.

I am too out of touch to be good at anything. I am a stranger in a strange land.

Metropolitan was a great fucking movie. (It is.)

Blue sky
Black night
Moon shines
Sun encourages
You die
Period (The End)
(Probably not the best time for this one. But I am discussing the life-death theme that has been around forever. I also have some different opinions about the ending, but that is what I wrote in 2003. )

Shit or get off the pot.

Bullshit. We are here. They are not. And might never be. Therefore we get the right. (Discussing Inter-generational Equity)

If nobody can afford them then they are worthless. (Discussing the end of natural resources.)

I would rather meet a person who was open about their prejudices then one who was clandestine about them.

There is no such thing as fairy tales. Just fairies and tail. (I must have stole this from somewhere, just can't remember where.)

Surprises

I realized today I had not written a resolutions blog post. I am not going to do one.

I would like to exercise more. So last Tuesday, I went to the gym to lift weights. I had been jogging, but it was raining. I lifted for the first time in six months. I did a lot better than I expected. I can still bench my weight. I could be pushing up 3 bills in a few months. I could get to 1.5 times my body weight even faster.

But I do not want that. I just want to avoid the doctor.

I feel like an adult.

Winning The Big One

My dad sponsored a rec league softball team when I was high school. The team was a story in itself, an eclectic mix of old high school stars past their prime and high schoolers still searching for their prime. We won the regular season championship two years in a row. But we didn't win the postseason playoff either year. (I and some of my teammates were somewhat limited because the playoffs were during two-a-days, but I make no excuses.)

Now it made my dad mad when a guy who once played told him that all that mattered were the postseason playoffs. "The regular season doesn't matter. It is about winning the big one."

Maybe they guy was right. But all I remember are the stories about the old guys past their prime and the guys who were still waiting on their prime.

Joe Posnanski Tries To Say What I Was Trying To Say

I cannot decide if he says it well or not. Maybe he is not trying to say what I was trying to say. But it is only commentary. No one except Texas and Ohio State players knows how it feel to play in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl. No one except Quan Cosby knows how it feels to catch a Fiesta Bowl winning touchdown. Joe's commentary is entertaining, but it is just commentary.

Football: College (NCAA Division I Bowl Championship Subdivision) And Professional Or A New Year's Resolution

The BCS does not bother me. It does not keep me up at night. I do not care. Leagues, associations, conferences and bowls are not about finding the best team. They are just structure to a great game, just a way to know the season is over.*

*When I was a kid, I wanted to develop a local Wiffle Ball league. I had the teams, the venues, the regular and post-season determined. I wanted to design the Crozet Wiffle Ball League (CWBL). I wanted to be a commissioner. Then one summer my dad came out and played with us. He added his structure. His structure was not my structure. And I never wanted a CWBL anymore. I just wanted to play in the backyard with my cousin and neighbors. Today I would like to go back and play wiffle ball in the backyard.

The NFL and college football seasons are mostly done. Most teams' seasons are over. And no one can tell me who the best team is. In college football, Utah beat Alabama in one game. But you can't convince me that Utah would beat Alabama 51 out of a 100 times. I have no idea how good Boise State or Ball State or Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech or Texas Tech or LSU or Mississippi or Penn State really is. USC is good, but they did lose to Oregon State who lost to Penn State. Who knows?

The NFL is parity. If you randomly simulated a hundred seasons, I think every team would average an 8-8 season with some exceptions (New England and Detroit come to mind). There are no best teams--just lucky and unlucky ones.

Of course, we cannot randomly simulate seasons and we will never know who is the best. And that is the point of football, especially for fans. Football is about stories. It is about debating "the best," "who would beat who," the pure violence of the sport, and the complicated people playing it. It is about our commentary on the game.*

*I say all of this while listening to a NFL number cruncher swear his numbers predicted the playoffs, swear his numbers can prove most anything about the NFL. This is commentary too.

So I will continue to read and watch the commentary on the NFL and college football. But I will remember it is just commentary. And I will recognize that my commentary does not matter to anyone but me.

Written On The Back Of A Package Of Foam Cups

"Foam cups are energy efficient. A ceramic mug must be washed and reused 1006 times and a glass washed and reused 393 times before it becomes as energy efficient as using disposable cups.*

*Hocking, "Reusable and Disposable Cups: An Energy Based Evaluation," Environmental Management 18(6) pp. 889-899 (1994)."

I always wondered about this, and I cannot comment on the validity of the study. But I have heard that there were a lot of myths floating around. Maybe the lesson here is that competition and free market choices (in this case people deciding between foam cups and mugs) leads to a workable (I dare say "sustainable") outcome. (In different contexts, a mug or a foam cup might be more efficient.) Given uncertainty and the inability to determine individual preferences, there is no optimal outcome. But the market has lead to a non-dooming outcome. Even though all I ever heard was how bad foam cups were.

(I know there are other reasons to not use foam cups, but my point is that full information is impossible while decisions must be made especially concerning coffee.)