Besides Belichick, Bill Walsh, no scrap that, all football coaches have a similar ex ante chance of success. Norv Turner and Tom Coughlin are coaching in Championship games this weekend. Wade Phillips led a team to a 13-3 regular season record. They just do not matter that much. The NFL is about luck: players not getting hurt, successful drafts and free agents, and the right bounces.
Belichick, Walsh, Gibbs, Noll, and Parcells help and have helped their teams, but they have all had their failures and fair share of good luck.
My point is that Snyder should hire Gregg Williams unless he can get Belichick and most of his staff. Williams has just a good of chance as getting the Redskins to the Super Bowl as anyone else. Unfortunately, the probability that they will go to a Super Bowl under Williams is small. But I know Cowher's probability is the same or less.
(Pete Carroll fascinates the hell out of me, not as a football coach but as a person.)
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