Stupid Things I Have Said

My sister's friend is getting married. Like my sister, she is twenty two years old. I asked my sister what the over/under was on her friend's marriage. My intended effect was to irk my sister. I achieved that goal.

But my 29 year old cousin was also a little irked. He half-jokingly asked what was the over/under was on his marriage. He could stand to make a few extra bucks.

I halfway apologized, and said that my joke was a poor way to think and not funny.

But my foolishness can also be used to teach an economic lesson.

In today's world divorce happens. There is significant chance that my sister's friend will be divorced. By me asking for an over/under I was implicitly claiming that my sister's friend's marriage was a risky proposition. Give me the average length of marriages between people with similar characteristics, and I will give you an over/under. I was implicitly assuming the length of marriages are a predictable stochastic process.

My cousin and sister felt that the length of any given marriage was uncertain. There were no stochastic process just chaotic randomness.

I do not know who is right. But people who see risk where others see uncertainty can make a lot of money.

But first they have to find the courage to bet, then they have to be lucky.